ABSTRACT
This project analyzed
the monthly Typhoid fever in Rasheed Shakoni Teaching Hospital from January 2018
- September 2024. The method of analysis here is time series analysis, trend
analysis and seasonal index method. The
analysis shows that whether there is an increase
or decrease of typhoid fever cases in Rasheed Shakoni Teaching Hospital. From the
analysis of this research, the slope is found to be (-0.310) suggests a slight
downward trend over time, as it is negative and the fit It shows a gradual
decrease of Typhoid fever over time, aligning with the negative slope of the
trend equation. The highest seasonal effect of Typhoid fever cases occurs
mostly in the month of Novermber and the
lowest seasonal effect Typhoid fever cases is observed mostly in the months
June and December. Lastly, we recommend that government should ensure that
there is a proper enlightment on sanitation over the media and printing
materials and the people should properly washed vegetables before use.
TABLE
OF CONTENTS
Title
page............................................................................................................................. i
Certification
...................................................................................................................... ii
Approval
page...................................................................................................................... iii
Dedication............................................................................................................................ iv
Acknowledgement.............................................................................................................. v
Abstract............................................................................................................................... vi
Table
of
contents............................................................................................................... vii
CHAPTER ONE
1.0
Introduction................................................................................................................. 1
1.1
Historical Background of the study............................................................................ 1
1.2
Statements of problems............................................................................................... 2
1.3
AIM and Objectives..................................................................................................... 2
1.4
significant of the study............................................................................................... 3
1.5
scope and limitations.................................................................................................. 3
1.6
Statement of Hypothesis
............................................................................................ 4
1.7
Definitions of some
terms........................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER TWO
2.0
Intoduction................................................................................................................. 5
2.1
Literature Review....................................................................................................... 6
CHAPTER THREE
3.0
Introduction................................................................................................................. 11
3.1
Research Methodology.............................................................................................. 11
3.3
Component Of Time
Series....................................................................................... 11
3.4
Time Series Model..................................................................................................... 13
3.5
Method Of Moving
Average...................................................................................... 14
3.6.1
Advantage Of Moving Average.............................................................................. 15
3.6.2
Disadvantage Of Moving Average......................................................................... 15
3.7
Method Of Least
Squares......................................................................................... 15
3.7.2
Advantage................................................................................................................ 16
3.7.2
Disadvantage.......................................................................................................... 16
3.8
Forecasting................................................................................................................ 16
3.9
Seasonal
Index.......................................................................................................... 17
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0
Data presentation and
analysis................................................................................... 18
4.1
Data
presentation......................................................................................................... 19
4.2
Data
Analysis................................................................................................................ 24
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0
Summary, Conclusion and Recommendation........................................................... 29
5.1
Summary..................................................................................................................... 29
5.2
Conclution..................................................................................................................... 29
5.3
Recommondation......................................................................................................... 29
Reference:........................................................................................................................... 31
CHAPTER ONE
1.0
INTRODUCTION
Typhoid Fever is a worldwide
disease which creates a very serious public health problem. In many under
develop countries; the world health organization (WHO) estimated that about one
person out of over hundred (100) is suffering from typhoid fever cases. They
also identify typhoid as a serious public health problem which incidence is
highest in children and young adults between 5-19 years old.
Typhoid fever is a
systematic disease caused by dissemination of salmonella typhoid or salmonella
paratyphoid mainly characterized by fever was called supply with salmonella
typhi (S. typhil), either directly by sewage or indirectly by flies or by
faulty personal hygiene. Symptomless carries harbouring the germ in the gall
bladder and excreting it in their stools are the main sources of out breaks of
disease in this country. The average incubation period is 10-14 days. A
progressive fedric illness marks the onset of disease which develops as
the germ invades typhoid
tissues, including that of the small intestine (peyers patches)
to profuse diarrheal
(peasoup) stools which may become frankly hemorrhagic, ultimate recovery
usually begins at the end of the third week. A rose coloured rash may appear on
the upper abdomen and back at the end of the first week.
1.2
Historical Background Area of Study
The Rasheed Shekoni Specialist was
established in 1998 by a third military administrator of Jigawa state colonial
Rasheed Shekoni (Rtd). From the August 1996 to August 1998. He built the
hospital and it was after him (Rasheed Shekoni Specialist Hospitals in Dutse),
capital of Jigawa state. But it was abandoned for ten years because before it
could be equipped and put to use during the first tenure if Jigawa state
elected governor ALHAJI SULELAMIDO(CON).
Rasheed Shekoni Specialist
Hospital, since the inception of SULE LAMIDO head administration on (16-April,
2014) has received considerable amount of people have patronizes the hospitals
for it is efficiency, because of the facilities and consideration the
government give to the family.
Rasheed Shekoni Specialist Hospital
is a public specialist hospital located in Dan Masara, Madobi ward in Dutse
local government area, Jigawa state Nigeria. Some of the basic services
provided are section, antenatal care family planning, malaria maternal health,
care delivery servicers, measles, immunization, emergency transport. Based on a
survey done 16th April, 2014. The faculty utilities included electricity,
improved water supply, improved sanitation, vaccines freezers etc. in Rasheed
Shekoni Specialist Hospital, day patient attendance in NHS term, is the
attendance of a day patient at a day hospital or inpatient word for a way
patient at a day hospital or an inpatient word for a day patient care, for at
least a half day up to a full day.
1.3 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEMS
Over the last decade,
there has been alarming increase in the rate of recorded cases of typhoid fever
in our various hospitals especially in Jigawa state. This has led to a very
serious questions on the minds of the citizenry in particular and the
professionals in our medical fields in general. Ordinary, since typhoid fever
is generally associated with a time lot of symptoms such as fever headache,
cough etc. these however make it a complicated disease with a very serious
economic and social effect on the victims. This study seeks to find the
prevalent rate of typhoid fever and suggest possible solutions in preventing
it.
1.4 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
The aim of this research work is to analyze the data on rate of typhoid fever cases (A case study of Rasheed
Shakoni Teaching Hospital from
2018-2024.
OBJECTIVES:
Some of the objectives
of this research work includes:
i.
To
estimate the trend of the disease (typhoid fever) whether it's increasing or
decreasing for this period of 2018-2024.
ii.
To
estimate the seasonal variation of the recorded cases of typhoid fever from January
2018 To September 2024
iii.
To
fit linear model for typhoid fever cases
iv.
To
predict for October, November and December 2024
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE
STUDY
This project is
significant in the sense that health problem imposed by typhoid fever in this
part of the world makes it a serious health issue that requires adequate
attention and care. This research work will be of great significance in the
following ways: This study will help the
hospital management, the state government and the general public to know the
particular months or quarter of the year that were mostly affected by typhoid
fever in order to
carryout enlightenment campaign towards reducing the incidence of the disease.
If the trend of reported cases of typhoid fever is found to be on increase, it
will enable the hospital management to put intensify effort towards applying
more preventive measures in order to combat the disease.
1.6 SCOPE AND LIMITATION
This study is designed
to cover Rasheed Shekoni teaching hospital Dutse, Jigawa state as recorded on a
yearly basis and it will also be carried out from 2018-2024.
1.7 LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
The major limitation to
this research work was basically on the collection of data and information is
regarded as confidential, besides there was inadequate asses to the data due to
reluctant attitude of the hospital medical record department to release the
data on time as well as the limited available literature which the researcher
was able to lay her hands on after much time wasted.
1.8 STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS
Ho: There is no
significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from
2018-2024.
Hi: There is significant
increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2018-2024.
Ho: There is no seasonal
variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 218-2024.
Hi: There is seasonal
variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2018-2024.
1.9
DIFINATION OF TERMS
TYPHOID:
Typhoid is a bacterial infection that can spread throughout the body, affecting
many organs. Without prompt treatment, it can cause serious complications and
can be fatal. It's caused by a bacterium called Salmonella typhi, which is
related to the bacteria that cause salmonella food poisoning.
FEVER:
A fever is when your body temperature is higher than your normal average temp.
Most providers say a fever is either 100.0 F (37.8 C) or 100.4 F (38C). When
you have a fever, it’s your body’s normal response to fighting an infection or
illness. Fevers usually aren’t a serious concern. They typically go away when
the infection passes.
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