ABSTRACT
The objective of this study was
the factors that influence farmers’ choice of adaptation measures and
identifies adaptation methods to climate change in Nigeria using Akwa Ibom
State as a case study. The data was collected from 160 sample households using a
survey questionnaire and was analyzed using both descriptive statistics and
econometric methods. Multinomial logit model (MNL) was used to identify factors
influencing farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate change and
variability.
The adaptation strategies considered in the
MNL model analysis were crop variety, improve crop and livestock, soil and
water conservation practices and irrigation. The result from the multinomial
logit analysis showed that age, family size, farm income, farm size, distance
to the farm, distance to the market, access to credit, livestock holding (TLU),
farm to farm extension and access to climate information are significance
factors influencing to farmers’ adaptation strategies. The basic barriers to
climate change adaptation on the farmers’ side are luck of knowledge, lack of
capital, lack of sufficient land and luck of information. Therefore, future
policy should focus on awareness creation on climate change to adaptation
through different ways such as mass media and extensions, encouraging informal
social networks, improving the availability of credit and enhancing research on
use of new crop varieties are more suited in different agro ecological zones.
TABLE
OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background of the study
1.2. Statement of
the problem
1.2.1. Research
Questions
1.3. Objective of
the study
1.3.1. General
objective of the study
1.3.2. Specific
objective of the study
1.4. Significance
of the study
1.5. Scope and
limitation of the study
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1. Theoretical
Literature Review
2.1.1. Overview of
Climate Change
2.1.2. Climate
change and the rural agricultural communities
2.1.3. Climate
change and agriculture sector in Nigeria
2.1.4. Projected
climate change in Nigeria and its impacts on agriculture
2.1.5. The concept
of adaptation and climate change
2.2 Empirical
Literature Review
2.2.1 Adaptation
strategies and determinant to adaptations
CHAPTER THREE
METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY
3.1. Description
of the Study Area
3.2. Data Type
and Sources
3.3. Methods of
Data Collection
3.4. Sampling Method and Sample Size
3.5. Method of
Data Analysis
3.6. Theoretical Model
3.7. Econometrics
Model
3.7.1. Multinomial logit
model
3.8. Statistical and Specification Tests
3.9. Definition
of the Model variable for Multinomial Logit Model
CHAPTER FOUR
RESULTS
4.1. Descriptive
Analysis Method
4.1.1. Farmers’
perceptions to climate change in Akwa Ibom State
4.1.2. Indicators of climate change and variability
observed by the farmers in Akwa Ibom State
4.1.3. Climate
related problems in Akwa Ibom State
4.1.4. Perception and adaptation decision by farmers
across agro-ecological zone in Akwa Ibom State
4.1.5. Presence of technical support and adaptation
decision of farmers in Akwa Ibom State
4.1.6. Adaptation strategies to climate change used
by farmers in Akwa state
4.1.7. Barriers to Climate change Adaptation in Akwa
Ibom State
4.2. Econometric
Estimation, Results and Discussions
4.2.1. Model
specification
4.2.2 Independence of irrelevant alternative (IIA)
test for MNL model
4.2.3. The summary
statistics for explanatory variables
4.2.4 Estimated results
of the multinomial logic model
4.2.5. Interpretation of significance determinant
factors of adaptation strategies from the marginal effect result
CHAPTER FIVE
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
5.1. Conclusions
5.2. Recommendation
and Policy Implication
REFERENCES
Questionnaire
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Agriculture
is the dominant sector of the economy in most of least developing countries. Nigeria
is one of the developing counties in which agriculture is the main source of
the economy. It contributed 41.6 percent to GDP, 60 percent for employment and
80 percent for export earnings. This sector is expected to have a base and
primary determinant for GTP. In line with this environmental conservation it
plays a great role in sustainable economic growth and development. The issue of
climate change stands at the heart of this transformation agenda. Currently the
issue of climate is one of the key agenda worldwide. Nigeria is highly
vulnerable to climate change and low capacity to adopt and perceived. Climate
change is a natural phenomenon which influences agricultural production and
negative effect on the social and economic activities and lead to food insecurity
in particular (MoFED, 2010).
According to IPCC (2007) Africa is one of the
regions that will be hard hit by the impact of climate change like increasing
in temperature and reduction in rainfall. Agricultural production and food
security in many African countries could be affected by climate change and
variability. By 2020 some countries rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up
to 50 percent, with smallholders being the most affected. The impact of climate
change could be reducing the economic growing in some parts of Africa and these
effects are expected to get worse. This implies that reduction in agriculture
production of the smallholder farmers and would be further adversely affected
food security. To sustain current levels of food production and to meet future
challenges smallholder farmers` may have to respond to the impact of climate
change using an adaptation strategies. (ibid)
Climate
change affects all aspect of economic growth especially in least developing
countries. To reduce the impact of climate change and enhance food security,
adaptation measures are urgently required. The process of adaptation options
are needed to be location, integrated and flexible. This climate change affects
to all agricultural sector in a multitude ways. For example, changing weather
pattern such as heavy flood and storms makes the agricultural production low
and leading to extreme events of poverty and slow down economic development. In
general, there is a relationship between climate vulnerability, poverty and
food insecurity (FAO, 2011).
Moreover,
adaptation is critical and necessary in developing countries, especially in Nigeria
where the fact that vulnerability is high. Most people of livelihoods and
living standard are affected by the impact of climate change. Farmers with
better knowledge and information on climate change and agronomic practices
enable to use adaptation methods to cope up with change in climate and other
socioeconomic conditions (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007). A better understanding
of the local dimensions of climatic change is also essential to develop
appropriate adaptation measures that can mitigate the adverse impact of climate
change. Therefore, awareness of the potential benefits from adaptation is an
important issue.
According
to Deressa et al. (2009) increasing temperature and rainfall variability in
different part of Nigeria were adversely affect the agricultural production of
the rural household farmers. To minimize the impact of climate change on
stallholder farmers’, adaptation strategy is vital instrument. The main
critical points such as social, economic, technology and environmental trends
are able smallholder farmer’s to perceive and adapt to climate change. In
addition, knowledge by itself on the adaptation method and factor affecting
farmer’s choice of the adaptation strategies are enhancing efforts directly
towards tackling to the impact of climate change.(ibid)
By
understanding all of these facts, effort should focus on finding mechanisms in
which smallholder farmer’s can reduce these problems and improve effort to
strength smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate change. Generally, it is
believed that the adaptation strategy of smallholder on agriculture to climate
change is imperative to enhance the resilience of agricultural sectors.
Therefore,
this study intended to identify smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies to
climate change and variability’s by taking Akwa Ibom State as a case
study.
Agriculture
is the major driver of economic growth especially in developing countries. Nigeria
is one of the least developing countries in which majority of its population
depend on agriculture sector. Rising the
agricultural production at the national level leads to improve overall economic
growth and development. However, currently climate change has become a serious
threat to sustainable economic growth (Gebreegziabher et al., 2012).
The impacts of climate change have been adversely affecting the economic
growth. These impacts affect all economic sensitive sectors especially
agriculture sector. Nigeria is a poor
country and its economy is highly depending on agriculture which had failed to
meet the growing food demand. This is
due to the fact that the negative effect of climate changes on agricultural
production (World Bank, 2007). Moreover, According to Deressa (2007) Nigerian
agriculture sector is negatively affected by climatic related disasters with
drought and flood being the major one.
Adaptation
is an essential strategy to enable farmers to cope with the adverse effect of
climate change and variability which in turn increase the agricultural
production of the poor farm households (Yesuf et al., 2008). Similarly,
knowledge of the adaptation methods on the side of smallholder farmers may make
it better to tackle the challenge of climate change (Deressa et al.,
2009).
Climate
change is unexpected impact because it is a natural phenomenon that varies with
location, socio economic and environmental conditions. The capacity to adapt to
climate change is unequal across and within societies. This fact implies that
the adaptation measures at micro level farm household are important to get
truth and appropriate policies. According to Maddison (2007) there is a
difference in the propensity of farmers living in different locations to adapt.
Farmers in different area or agricultural zone have unequal propensity and
capacity to climate change impact and adaptation. According to Admassie et al.
(2008) in-depth study on vulnerability and adaptation should continue. To
address this studying one specific site area is appropriate. Therefore, the
researcher tried to address this gap of knowledge by studying a single state
level case study of adaptation strategies to climate change.
Some
researchers are done on climate related issues in Nigeria but most of them are
focused on the farmers of Nile Basin as a case study (Deressa et al., 2010;
Rengler et al., 2009; Hassan et al., 2008 and Yesuf et al., 2008) .Their
findings are interesting to make policy intervention at micro level especially
for the farmers who are similar to the socio economic and climatic condition of
Nile Basin. But a one size fits all recommendation is inappropriate given
difference in agro ecologies. Since adaptation is a local effort, therefore the
adaptation method differs within community and even within individuals.
According to Fussel (2007) tailoring adaptation practices to specific societies
or communities may make it possible to offset the adverse impact of climate
change.
Therefore,
a better understanding of the local dimensions of the climate change is
important to develop appropriate adaptation measures and appropriate policies. Akwa
Ibom State is district central Zone of Tigrai, which is vulnerable to climate
change. In this study area the impact of climate change is adversely affecting
the agriculture. The existence of warming and rainfall variety leads to reduce
the agricultural production of the smallholder farmers. Therefore, the area is
seriously affected by the climate change and weather variability. As to the
knowledge of the researcher, no earlier study was conducted on the climate
change adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in this study area. Hence,
considering this knowledge gap, the researcher would study on the local level
of smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change in Akwa Ibom
State.
The study was attempted to address the following
questions:
1. What are the determinant
factors that influence farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change
in Adwa wereda?
2. What kinds of adaptation
methods the smallholder farmers’ response to climate change in Adwa
wereda?
3. What are policies
implications from the finding of the study?
1.3.
Objective of the study
The
general objective of this study is to determine the factors that influence
smallholder farmers’ choice of adaptation method and identify adaptation
strategies used by farmers’ in response to climate change and variability in Nigeria
using Akwa Ibom State a case study.
1.3.2.
Specific objective of the study
1. To determine factors that
influence farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate change in Akwa
Ibom State.
2. To identify adaptation
strategies used by farmers’ in response to climate change and variability in Akwa
Ibom State.
3. To propose some policy
implication (recommendation) based on the findings of the study.
1.4.
Significance of the study
Purposely
this research would intend to study the smallholder farmers’ adaptation
strategies to climate change in Akwa Ibom State. This study was conducted at
micro level so that it is very interesting to use as guideline document for
further research in this study area and to the same climatic, socioeconomic and
geographical areas. In addition, it may
provide significant contribution to local and national government, NGOs and
other bilateral donors in an effort to minimize the impact of climate change
design of policy at local level.
1.5.
Scope and limitation of the study
This study was carried out
on smallholder farmers in Akwa Ibom State district central Zone of Tigrai
region. It was conducted on smallholder farmers’ adaptation strategies to
climate change by taking a case study approach in order to make a detail
analysis. The major limitation of this study was the inclusion of only four
climate change adaptation strategies in the model and the sample size was also
not large because of financial and time constraint.
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