TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE
1.0: Introduction
1.1: Problem Identification
1.2: Significance of Study
1.3: Aim and Objectives of the Study.
1.3.1: Aim
1.3.2: Objectives.
1.4: Study Area
1.4.1: Geographical Background
1.4.2: Climate.
1.4.3: Eco-Regions and Ecological Features of Lagos State.
1.4.4:
Transportation, Industry and Commerce.
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.0:
Global Climate Change and Causes
2.1: Overview of the Nigerian Context.
2.2: Recent Climate Trends in Nigeria.
2.3: Impacts of Climate Change.
2.3.1: Ecological Implications of
Climate Change.
2.3.2: Impact of Climate Change on
Hydrological Cycle.
2.3.3: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security.
2.3.4: Impacts of Climate Change on
Human Health.
2.4: Vulnerability to Climate
Change.
2.4.1: Vulnerability of Lagos
Coastal Region to Climate Change Impacts.
2.5: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies.
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1: Introduction
3.2: Data Collection
3.3: Statistical Analysis
3.4: Constraints
CHAPTER FOUR
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.0: Introduction
4.1: Analysis of Temperature Distribution
4.1.1: Annual Mean Temperature Trend (1981-2010)
4.1.2: Decadal Monthly Temperature Distribution
4.1.3: Decadal Temperature Distribution (°C)
4.2: Analysis of Rainfall Distribution
4.2.1: Annual Rainfall Trend (1981-2010)
4.2.2: Decadal Monthly Rainfall Distribution (Mm)
4.2.3: Decadal Rainfall Distribution
4.3: Analysis of Rainfall Variability
4.3.1: Annual Rainfall Variability
4.3.2: Decadal Rainfall Variability.
4.4:
Consequences of the Climatic Trend and Variability in Lagos Coastal Region
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATION
5.0: Summary
5.1: Conclusion
5.2: Recommendation
REFERENCES
CHAPTER ONE
1.0: INTRODUCTION
Among the major problems facing mankind today, is the issue of
climate change and variability. Climate change has long-since ceased to be a
scientific curiosity, and no longer a mere environmental and regulatory
concerns but a major, overriding environmental issue of our time, and the
single greatest challenge facing environmental regulators (Odjugo, 2011). It is also a growing crisis with economic,
health and safety, food production, security and other dimension. It should be noted that climate change is
linked to human actions, and in particular from the burning of fossil fuels and
changes in global patterns of land use.
Also, due to the human-induced increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations, various impacts have been observed (Wardekker, 2011)
However, major consequences
of climate change and variability are mainly felt at regional levels with
continuous impact on the environment as it relates to global temperatures,
water resources, ecosystems, agriculture and health, among others. For example, over the past century
(1906-2005), global average surface temperatures have increased by 0.74±0.18°C
(IPCC, 2007). This is based on
observations of air and ocean temperatures and changes, snow/ice extent and sea
level. The evidence is that the Earth is
warming and that future global climate and environmental circumstances may be
significantly different from today.
Hence, there is need for an appropriate adaptation technique with
potential to avoid adverse climate change consequences.
Global climate changes are also expected to affect coastal
communities around the world, many of which are already considered vulnerable
to ongoing climate variability (IPCC, 2001; Ogbuene, 2011). Lagos coastal
region due to its location and topography is particularly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change. Of these changes, accelerated sea-level rise has
received much attention and may entail elevated tidal inundation, increased
flood frequency, accelerated erosion, rising water tables, increased salt water
intrusion and a suite of ecological changes(Odjugo, 2001a)
In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
recognises the Nigerian coast as one of the low-lying coasts in West Africa
which is likely to experience severe effects from flooding as a result of
rising sea levels and climate change.
The low nature and the topography of the entire Nigerian coastline area
render the area very susceptible to flooding especially at high tides and
during the rainy season (Nicholls and Mimura, 1998).
Lagos coastal region has experienced significant land cover changes
due to fast and present reclamation activities to secure more and more land for
urban development (Odjugo, 2009a). Land
reclamation achieved through filling up of swamps and floodplains, destruction
of mangroves and wetlands have generally reduced the flood storage capacity of
the urban land (Anika, 2010). Rapid and largely unplanned urban growth has
resulted in land use changes and subsequent changes in the hydrological fluxes
in the urban watershed thereby increasing flood hazard and risk in many parts
of the metropolis (Anyadika, 2009). This makes the rapidly urbanizing area and
the growing population vulnerable to sea level rise and climate change (Ayoade
and Akintola, 1980). Hence, due to the
detrimental effect of climate change on physical and biological systems, coping
with climate change remains a daunting challenge.
Hence this study attempts to
access climate change and variability in Lagos coastal region.
1.1: PROBLEM
IDENTIFICATION
Climate change is to a great extent induced by human activities that
causes variability in the intensity of heat burning the earth surface and the
degree of rainfall for long period. This
could provoke dangerous implications to vulnerable Lagos coastal regions
because it is prone to sea-level rise and extreme weather events which include:
(a)
Wetlands and lowlands
inundation: Wetlands in Lagos coastal region consist of the dominant brackish
water mangrove swamps and marshes and rainforest swamps and marshes (Ibe,
1990). A sea level rise will inundate
these wetlands with sea water through the many tidal inlets that characterize
the Lagos coastline which will adversely affect the mangrove ecosystem and its
inhabitant. Loss of wetlands could also
occur whereby wetlands do no longer function as natural buffer to flooding.
(b)
Shorelines erosion (Plate 2): An accelerated
rise in sea level will be accentuated by the phenomenon of subsidence which
would aggravate the existing ecological problems associated with coastal
erosion resulting in loss of wetlands and creating threats to most
socio-economic installations on or near the coastline and increase flood
risk.
(c)
Exacerbate coastal flooding
(Plate 1): Increase precipitation and thermal expansion of sea will raise the
sea level resulting in flooding of low lying beaches. This will automatically cause flooding in the
adjacent coastal areas, cities and inhabited islands. This is expected to even become more
threatening whenever storm surges coincide with spring tides (Kron, 2008).
(d)
Salt water intrusion: Rising
sea levels also increase the salinity of groundwater and push salt water
further upstream. This salinity may make
water undrinkable without desalination, and harms aquatic plants and animals
that cannot tolerate salinity.
(e)
Change the heights, frequencies
and other characteristics of waves among others
These effects
have enormous environmental, social, cultural, economic and financial implications
for the coastal areas. Hence a participatory approach by various stakeholders
involved in Lagos coastal region towards implementation of adaptation
techniques will be needful for sustainable development of the region.
Plate 1: Flooding of Lagos
city after a heavy rain
Source:
(BNRCC, 2008)
Plate 2: Eroded shorelines of Alpha Beach, Lagos
Source (Vanguard Newspaper, October 9, 2012)
Plate 3: Coastal Erosion threatened by Atlantic Ocean,
Lagos
Source (Vanguard Newspaper, October 9, 2012)
Plate 4: Atlantic Ocean Surge at Kuramo Beach, Lagos.
Source (Premium Times, August 21, 2012)
Plate 5: Lagos, February 13, 2012 Rainstorm
Source:
Lagos State Environmental Protection Agency 4th Summit Presentation
1.2: SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY
Worldwide, coastal areas are the most exploited in terms of
urbanization due to their abundance in natural resources that can provide
humans with many ecosystem services that are important to support livelihoods
and economic activities (Kron, 2008).
The level of disturbance and
effect of urbanization on natural process in coastal regions are fast becoming
a nightmare, some of which are expected to become more serious due to changing
climate (Satterthwaite, 2010).
Hence, this study examines
and analyzes climate change and variability in Lagos coastal region using
temperature and rainfall measurement as a parameter over a specific duration
(30years). This study also highlights the impacts of climate change to coastal
regions that invariably may contribute to accentuated environmental disasters
and the exacerbation of health risks.
1.3: AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY.
1.3.1: AIM
The aim of this study is to assess the climate trends for Lagos
region and the consequences on the coastal environment in order to develop an
appropriate climate change adaptation strategies for Lagos coastal region.
1.3.2: OBJECTIVES.
The specific objectives are:
v To examine the rainfall and temperature trend in Lagos region
(1981-2010)
v To assess the relative consequences of the climatic trends socio-economic
activities and environment in Lagos region.
v To evaluate appropriate adaptation strategies towards sustainable
Lagos coastal environment.
1.4: STUDY AREA
1.4.1: GEOGRAPHICAL
BACKGROUND
Lagos, a state in Nigeria is the study area of this research. It is a commercial centre in Nigeria with a
total of about 17 million inhabitants, a yearly growth rate of 3.2% and second
most populous city in the country (Census, 1996). It is the fifth largest city in the world, is
the foremost manufacturing and port city in West Africa, and the hub of
business and economic development in Nigeria (BNRCC, 2012)
This coastal city is situated within latitude 6°23’N and 6°41’N and
longitude 2°42’E and 3°42’E (Fig 1).
Figure 1: Lagos
Coastal City (Source: Vulnerability of Poor Urban Coastal Communities to
Climate Change in Lagos, Nigeria. Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
Lagos State is situated in south western Nigeria, bordered in the
north and east by Ogun State, in the west by the Republic of Benin and in the
south by the Atlantic Ocean. The state
has an area of approximately 3,345 square kilometres, which is about 0.4% of
the total area of Nigeria (Fig 1).
Lagos State has a coastline of approximately 180km, underlined by
sedimentary rocks; the state is on a coastline plain characterized by
predominantly flat terrain, with an average elevation of less than 1.5m above
sea level (BNRCC, 2012a). The land
slopes gently from the interior to the sea.
Water bodies and wetlands cover over 40% of the total land area of the
state and an additional 12% is subject to seasonal flooding (BNRCC, 2012b). The coastal areas consist of a complex belt
of barrier islands with active ocean, beaches, lagoon and lagoon beaches,
lagoon inlets, creeks, rivers, swamps and sandy uplands and plains. The importance of the coastal zone lies in
the fact that it is not only already heavily urbanized but rapid urbanization
is continuing, exposing people, infrastructure and tourism industry to greater
risk of climate change impact, particularly seal level rise (Okude and
Ademiluyi, 2006).
1.4.2: CLIMATE.
The climate of Lagos state is the wet equatorial type due to its
nearness to the equator and the Gulf of Guinea. Lagos is located partly in the
swampy mangrove and partly rainforest regions of West Africa with annual maxima
bi-modal rainfall. It receives mean
annual rainfall of about 2000mm (Ojo et al., 2004). Lagos has a tropical
savannah climate that is similar to that of the rest of southern Nigeria. There are two rainy seasons, with heaviest
rains falling from April to July and a weaker rainy season in October and
November. There is a brief relative dry
spell in August and a longer dry season from December to March. The main dry season is accompanied by
harmattan winds from the Sahara Desert, which between December and early
February can be quite strong. Lagos state has consistently high temperatures,
with the mean monthly maximum temperature of about 30°C (Iwugo et al., 2003).
1.4.3: ECO-REGIONS AND ECOLOGICAL FEATURES OF LAGOS
STATE.
The eco-regions of Lagos State and their features are summarized in
Table 1. Wetlands and upland forest
(Rainforest) are the dominant ecozones.
In fact, the state falls within the Tropical Rainforest zone, but the
vegetation cover in areas that are not built up is mostly a mosaic of mangrove
swamps, fresh water swamps, secondary forest, farmland and fallow land. The topography is gently sloping throughout
and the soils are mostly deep and poorly drained (FDALR, 1995)
Table 1.4.3: Eco-regions of Lagos State and their Ecological
Features
|
Eco-region
|
Geology
|
Topography
|
Soil features
|
Ecozone
|
|
Badagry, Ibeju-
Lekki, Ojo, Lagos
Island, Surulere,
Eti-Osa and areas
close to the coast
|
Deltaic basis
and tidal
flats
|
Nearly level
plains of 1-2 %
slope
|
Very deep, poorly
drained and moderately well drained soils; sandy, sandy loamy or sandy clay
loam surfaces over sandy clay, loam sub soils.
|
Wetland
|
|
Part of Ebutemetta,
Mushin and
Shomolu, Kosofe
Agbowa, Ejinrin,
parts of Epe and
parts of Ikorodu like
the Igbogbo areas.
|
Recent
Alluvium
|
Nearly level to
gently
undulating
plains of 2-4 %
slope
|
Deep, well drained and
deep poorly drained soils; sand, sandy loam, loamy sand or sandy clay loam surfaces
over sand, sandy
clay, sandy clay loam,
clay loam or loamy sand sometimes gravel sub soils.
|
Wetland
|
|
Ikeja, part of Ebute-
Metta, Mushin and
Alimosho, Agege,
Epe, part of Eredo,
and part of Ejinrin.
|
Coastal
Plain Sands
(Alfisols
|
Nearly level
plains with 1-2%
slope
|
Very deep well drained
soils, loamy, sand, sandy loam or sandy clay loam surfaces over sandy clay
loam, clay loam, sometimes gravel type sub soils.
|
Rain
Forest
|
|
Part of Eredo
towards Ijebu-Ode
mainly the
boundary of Lagos
and Ogun States.
|
Transitional
materials of
sub-recent
alluvium and
coastal plain
sands
|
Nearly level
plains of 1-2%
slope
|
Rain Forest
|
Rain Forest
|
|
Parts of Ikorodu
leading to
Shagamu.
|
Coastal
Plain Sands
|
Gently
undulating
plains of 2-4%
|
Very deep well drained,
and very deep poorly drained soils; sandy,
sandy loam or sandy clay
loam surfaces over sandy, loam, sandy clay, loam, sandy clay, or clay loam
sub soils.
|
Rain Forest
|
Source: Adapted from Reconnaissance Soil
Survey of Nigeria, FDALR (1995)
1.4.4: TRANSPORTATION, INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE.
Lagos State relies
heavily on road transport for the movement of people, freight and services;
this has resulted in more vehicles and greater emissions, most especially from
diesel engines. Roads are susceptible to
damage by erosion and flooding caused by excessive rainfall. Lagos metropolis is Nigeria’s industrial and
commercial capital. The volume of
commerce and industrial activities in Lagos State accounts for over 20% of the
earnings in the Value Added Tax of the entire Federation (BNRCC, 2012a).
Industry and commerce are major source of the heat that contributes to the
classic urban heat island effect, which is likely to increase as a result of
climate change.
Manufacturing industries in Lagos state have its respective
environmental impact and contributes significantly to the effects of climate
change. Manufacturing operations that
are likely to contribute to the effects of climate change are those that result
in significant direct greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), such as cement, iron and
steel production, as well as those that are highly energy intensive, such as
paper and chemicals operation (BNRCC, 2012a)
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