This study analyzes fertility and mortality trends at Rasheed Shekoni Teaching Hospital, Dutse, using data collected from 2014 to 2024. The findings show consistent increases in both fertility and mortality cases over the 11-year period. Descriptive statistics reveal average annual counts of 572 fertility cases and 54 mortality cases, with both variables showing steady upward trajectories. Linear regression analysis indicates strong positive relationships between time and both fertility (R² = 0.97) and mortality (R² = 0.95), confirming significant annual growth. Quadratic regression models provide an even better fit (R² = 0.982 for fertility; R² = 0.967 for mortality), revealing accelerating fertility growth and a gradually increasing mortality trend. Forecasts based on the preferred quadratic models project fertility cases to rise to approximately 740 in 2025 and 773 in 2026, while mortality cases are expected to reach 70 and 73, respectively. These trends highlight the need for strengthened resource allocation, staffing expansion, and infrastructural development within the hospital. While the models demonstrate high predictive accuracy, forecast uncertainty remains due to potential external influences such as policy changes, demographic shifts, and Statistics events. The study concludes that proactive planning and continuous data monitoring are essential for managing the increasing demand for healthcare services at the institution.
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Fertility and mortality are two core pillars of population
change. Fertility describes patterns of childbearing, while mortality captures
the frequency and causes of death in a population. In Nigeria, fertility
remains high compared to global levels, even though a slow decline is underway,
and mortality especially among mothers and young children remains
a major Statistics concern (NPC & ICF, 2019;
Olowolafe et al., 2023; UN IGME, 2023). Understanding recent trends inside
health facilities helps managers and policymakers see what is changing on the
ground and what to improve (WHO, 2025).
National survey data show Nigeria’s total fertility rate
(TFR) was above five children per woman in 2018, with large regional
differences rates are typically higher in the North-West than the
national average (NPC & ICF, 2019; Kunnuji et al.,
2022). Studies also link fertility patterns to age at first birth, women’s
education, and access to family planning (Agbana et
al., 2022; Olowolafe et al., 2023). That means hospital delivery records,
antenatal (ANC) registers, and family planning logs can reveal useful
“facility-based fertility patterns,” such as the age distribution of mothers,
parity, and short birth intervals that increase risk (NPC & ICF, 2019; Salawu et al., 2021).
Mortality trends are equally important. According to the UN
Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, under-five deaths remain
high in sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria contributing a large share of global
deaths (UN IGME, 2023; UNICEF, 2025). Neonatal mortality in Nigeria has been
stubbornly high, and recent analyses using DHS/MICS data show slow progress and
persistent regional gaps (Kunnuji et al., 2022; Wammanda
et al., 2022). Within facilities, tracking neonatal deaths, stillbirths,
and post-neonatal deaths against total live births helps identify preventable
factors like infections, birth asphyxia, prematurity, and delays in seeking or
receiving care (UNICEF, 2025; Wammanda et al.,
2022).
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Despite sustained national and international interventions,
Nigeria continues to record high fertility rates and a substantial number of
preventable maternal and newborn deaths. Hospital records, which could provide
critical local evidence for timely quality improvement, remain underutilized.
At Rasheed Shekoni Teaching Hospital, where numerous childbirths and patient
referrals are documented, there appears to be no known existing research that
explores the trends and underlying causes of fertility-related challenges (such
as high parity and short birth intervals) and mortality outcomes (including
maternal, neonatal, and under-five deaths)
between 2014 and 2024.
1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study
The aim of this research is to analyze the data on fertility
and mortality cases at Rasheed Shekoni Teaching Hospital from 2014 to 2024
through the following objectives:
1.
To fit a linear model for
maternal data and forecast for 2025-2026
2.
To fit a linear model for
fertility data and forecast for 2025-2026
3.
To test whether there is
significant difference between fertility and mortality
1.4 Significance of the Study
This study is important because it helps doctors, hospital
managers, health planners, and researchers better understand patterns of births
and deaths at Rasheed Shekoni Teaching Hospital over the years.
It will help the hospital plan ahead for the future
(2025–2026) using data-based forecasts.
Health officials and government bodies can use the results to improve
health programs for mothers and children. Researchers and students in health,
statistics, and Statistics will also benefit from the models used in this study
for future studies. The study shows if there is a big difference between
fertility and mortality, which can help in focusing on the more pressing
issues.
1.5 Scope and Limitations of the Study
Scope: The research focuses only on data from Rasheed
Shekoni Teaching Hospital between 2014 and 2024. It covers maternal, fertility,
and mortality cases. The study uses
statistical models (linear and quadratic) to analyze trends and make forecasts
for 2025 and 2026.
Limitations: The findings are based only on data from
one hospital, so they may not represent the whole state or country. Missing or
incomplete records may affect the accuracy of the results. The models used may
not capture unexpected future events like disease outbreaks or policy changes.
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