ABSTRACT
This topic research "statistics analysis total population
growth and projection of Kano State Government". From the year 2010-2019
(10 years) using the Geometric and Exponential Growth Methods in the course of
population growth and projection attempt was made to formulate credible
assumption of the projection result under the three variant are presented and
also the estimate value using the geometric and exponential method will compare
with two method and the result are closely related. The projection formula and
geometric and exponential growth method and also the information about the size
of population is extremely value with the information government and provide
the correct number of school, hospital and road, carrying out a population
growth and projection is a strata forward process not only large agencies,
population council or the censes board can make the population growth and
projection conclusion. The population growth and projection shows that the
population of Kano state are calculated and preserved in the total population
of Kano state will increase from 13,345,061 in 2010 with this information,
government can build the correct number of school, hospital and road and
provide the social amenities to the people of the state.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page
Approval Page - - - - - - - - - -ii
Certification - - - - - - - - - - -iii
Declaration - - - - - - - - - - -iv
Acknowledge - - - - - - - - - -v
Abstract - - - - - - - - - - -vi
Table of
contents - - - - - - - - - -vii
CHAPTER ONE
1.0
Introduction - - - - - - - - - -1
1.1 Brief
history of the study - - - - - - - - -6
1.2 Statement
of the problem - - - - - - - - -6
1.3 Aim and
objective of the study - - - - - - - -7
1.4
significance of the study - - - - - - - - -7
1.5 Scope and
limitation of the study - - - - - - - -7
1.6 Definition
of term - - - - - - - - - -8
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Literature
review - - - - - - - - - -10
2.1 Component
of population projection - - - - - - -16
2.2 Three
variant of fertility decline were assumed - - - - - -17
2.3 Mortality
of assumption - - - - - - - - -17
CHAPTER THRE
3.0 Methodology
of the research - - - - - - - -19
3.1 Method of
data collection - - - - - - - -19
3.2 Source of
Data - - - - - - - - - -20
3.3 Sample Size - - - - - - - - - -20
3.4 Sampling
techniques - - - - - - - - -20
3.5 Method of
data analysis - - - - - - - - -21
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 Data
Presentation and Analysis - - - - - - - -23
4.1 Data
presentation - - - - - - - - -23
4.2 Data
analysis - - - - - - - - - -23
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 Summary,
Conclusion and Recommendations - - - - - -27
5.1 Summary - - - - - - - - - -27
5.2 Conclusion - - - - - - - - - -27
5.3 Recommendations - - - - - - - - -27
Reference - - - - - - - - - -28
CHAPTER
ONE
1.0
Introduction
A population census is the total process of collecting compiling
evaluating publishing and disseminating demographic economic and social data
pertaining, at a specific to all people in a country or in a well delimited
part of it according to (Gabriel Fossil, 1998) a population census is of great
relevance to the economic political and social development of a country. It is
the major source of the bench-mark data. If the size, structure and
distribution of the country's population required from planning and research
purpose.
In pursuance of the conduct of a population census the Government promulgated
decree no.23 of 1989 establishing the National Population Commission (NPC) the
primary objective of the census was to provide information on the number
distribution and social demographic characteristic of the people as such piece
of information are necessary to facilitate social - economic and development
planning.
Achieving large of all person in Nigeria at time of the census was
the objective of the enumeration was conduct on a detail basic in other words
person who were away from place of usual residence were not enumerated there,
in the hope that there were enumerated wherever they were within this country.
Provision was made for call-back realizing that people are very
mobile and that the requirement that respondent be enumerated only of they were
physically present required several visit some household to ensure thoroughly
and complete enumeration.
The size of the population is not
same in the different district. The number of the people is different in the
different area. The procedure of systematical counting of the population or
number of people is known as their census, In Nepal, the census is taken every
10 years.
In Nepal, the first census of was
taken in 1911 AD (2068 BS). According to the census of BS, the population of
the Nepal was 23151423 (23 million 151 thousand 423) in which 11,563,921 were
male and 11,563,921 were female and according to the census of the BS, the
population of the Nepal was 26,494,505 in which 12,849,041 (48.5%) were the
male population and 13,645,463 (51.50%) were female population. According to
census 2011 AD, central development region has the highest number of
population. This all proves that population distribution of Nepal is not the
same in all the part of the country.
Important of the population
The size of the population and
projection is always changing in response to.
i.
facility
ii.
mortality and
iii.
migration
The actual size of a population can
be explained on the basis of the partials, place and in a particular time. The
population is one of the important factor which helps to blame their
environment the population should be in a blank with the means and the resources.
If the population will be balanced, then all they need and demand of the people
can be easily fulfilled which helps to preserved the environment of the
country.
Couses of population growth and
projection these are the leading couses:-
-
Poverty is believing to be the leading couse of the over population
-
Poor contractive case
-
Child labour
-
Reduced Mortality rate
-
Fertility treatment
-
Immigration
-
Lower life expectation
Meaning
of the population projection:
A population projection is the calculations
of future birth rate death rate and migration population based on their past
and present condition. They are neither prediction, nor forecast nor estimate.
Rather they are in between prediction and forecast.
Types
the population projection
Population projections are of
various types we discuss them as under.
1. Total
projection and their regional production:- Projections made for whole
country are caved total projection but when projections are made for a region,
State or province district or ethic group they are calling original or
sectorial projection.
2. Forward projection and the backward projection:- As a matter of fact all projections are based on the fast data for
the future of population and such projection are called forward projection.
However in certain exceptional cases projections are made about the fast
population this are known as backward projection.
Backward projection and made where population census has not been
done or to check the correctness of past to check the correctness of past
population.
1.1 Limitations of the Census Data
The
1996 Census data is subject to error (e.g. coverage, non-response, and sampling
errors) and therefore the information provided for the Snapshot should be
interpreted with caution.
Please
see appendix "B" for detailed information about the limitations of
Census data (information provided by Statistics Canada)
Other
considerations when using the Census data to interpret information gleaned from
the Snapshot include the following:
- Communities with a Snapshot population of less
than five were not analysed. These low figures compromise confidentiality
and are susceptible to large fluctuations when calculating proportions.
- Caution must be used when interpreting the
Census information in relation to the number of Aboriginal youth in
custody on Snapshot day, as small changes in the number of youth in
custody may produce large fluctuations when calculating proportions (e.g,
5 youth in a location with 10 Aboriginal youth, compared to 5 youth in a
location with 100 Aboriginal youth).
- There is no way to determine where the
youth in the Snapshot resided when the 1996 Census was conducted (in fact,
many Snapshot youth were less than 12 years of age at the time of the 1996
census). As a result, it is difficult to determine if the distribution of
Aboriginal youth has changed within the last four years. Therefore, the
proportions that have been provided within this study should be
interpreted in this report should be interpreted with caution.
- Overall, the information contained in this
report will provide some context concerning the initial Snapshot questions
(where youth lived, where they committed/allegedly committed their
offence, and where they plan to relocate) and other information (e.g.
demographic information and offence types).
However,
due to limitations with the data, the results must be interpreted with caution
and are best understood in conjunction with other sources of information (e.g.
other research or consultation with jurisdictional and community
representatives as to the nature and extent of Aboriginal youth involvement
with the criminal justice system).
1.2
Population Projection Methods
Population
projections may be prepared using either subjective or objective methods.
Subjective methods are those in which data, techniques,
and assumptions are not clearly identified; consequently, other analysts cannot
replicate them exactly. Objective methods are those for which data, techniques,
and assumptions are clearly identified, such that other analysts can replicate
them exactly. We do not cover subjective methods in this chapter, but it is
important to note that even objective methods require choices regarding
variables, data sources, projection techniques, and so forth. At some level,
every projection method requires the application of judgment.
Following
Smith et al. (2001), we classify objective methods into three broad categories:
Trend extrapolation methods are based on the continuation of observable historical trends.
For methods of this type, future values of a variable are determined solely by
its historical values.
Cohort-component method divides the population into age-sex cohorts and accounts for the
fertility, mortality, and migration behavior of each cohort. A variety of
techniques can be used to project each of the three components of population
growth.
Structural Models rely on observed relationships between demographic
and other variables (e.g., land uses, employment) and base population changes
on projected changes in those other variables. The relationships in structural
models are typically developed using regression analysis and variants thereof.
In actual application, methods in these three categories are not always
mutually exclusive. For example, applications of the cohort-component method
often incorporate trend extrapolations of one type or another, and structural
models are often used in conjunction with the cohort-component method.
1.3 Brief
history of the study
The population census in Nigeria, the pre independent time, the
first organization similar to the Modern Nigeria Berue of Statistics started in
1866. The census took place every ten years at the beginning of a new dacade:
1871, 1881, 1891 and 1901. The single most important source of demographic and
social-economic data evolution of social and economic development policy such
as the strategy for growth and reduction of poverty (NSGRP) and Zanzibar the
poverty reduction plan (ZPRP). And the planning level up to data and reliable
data are essential for the formulation of realistic development plant for
social-economic development.
It is hoped that the population project presented in this report
will enhance the usefulness of the next census data.
The last figure of the population census of Nigeria, the Kano state
of the year is 18,522,231.
1.4 Statement
of problem
This brief statement of population problems indicate the provable
and depressive effect that uncontrolled growth of population can have on my
aspects of human welfare. Nearly all over economic social and political
problems become more difficult to solve in the face of uncontrolled population
growth. It is clear that even in the wealter? Nations, many individuals and
families experience misery and unhappiness because of the birth of unwanted
children. The desirable of limiting family size is now fairly generally through
not university, recognized, particularly among the better educated and
culturally advanced segments of the population in many countries.
This research is truly to smoothies the population on growth and
projection in Kano and tacked the problems.
1.5 Aim and
objectives
The aim this research work is to provide information on the number
distribution and social demographic characteristic of the people.
The objective of this research work is also to forecast the
increase or decreases of population for the next coming year according to birth
death and migrants.
i.
To identify
constant rate of population growth from 2010 to 2019.
ii.
To estimate the
population of Kano State for 2022.
iii.
To estimate the
year in which Kano State population will double itself taking 2019 as the base
year.
1.6 Significance
of the study
·
As such pieces
of information are necessary for facilitate social economic and development
planning.
·
To make a comparative
study between population growth and projection of the local government area.
·
To find out if
the projection of the local government is mainly population growth and
projection.
·
To unfold the
problems facing the peoples of the local government area in term of social
amenities.
1.7 Scope and
Limitation
This project is to limit to their population growth and projection of
Kano state, for the period of 2010-2019 which is 10 years period.
1.8 Definitions of term
Promulgation: in
the act of formally proclaiming or declaring a new statutory administration law
after it's an estimate.
Strategy: is
the direction and scope of an organization were the long firm which achieves
advantage.
Interpolation: By
interpolation we mean the process of calculating mathematically the size of a
population at a point interval of 2 period at which its size are known.
The
average annual rate of increase between two period is known and the rate is
applied to estimate the population between two period.
Extrapolation: By
extrapolation we mean estimation of the value outside the range of a given
value. The two formulars of geometric growth method and an exponential growth
method may be used to estimate the size of the population at a point of time
the growth rate is constant and will not change.
Facilitate:
make an action or process.
Enumerator:
Enumerator refers to survey personnel charged with carrying out that part of an
enumeration consisting of the counting and listing of people.
Enumeration: is
the act or process of making or stating a list of things one after
Merriam-Webster another; also: the list itself.
Migration: The
movement of persons away from their place of usual residence, either across an
international border or within a State. See also climate migration.
Immigration:
Process through which individuals become permanent residents or citizens of
another country. Historically, the process of immigration has been of great
social, economic, and cultural benefit to states. The immigration experience is
long and varied and has in many cases resulted in the development of
multicultural societies; many modern states are characterized by a wide variety
of cultures and ethnicities that have derived from previous periods of
immigration.
Death rate: Is
a measure of the number of deaths in a particular population, scaled to the
size of that population, per unit of time.
Birth rate: Is
the ratio between the number of live-born births in the year and the average
total population of that year.
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