SOCIAL MEDIA AND ELECTION OUTCOME: AN ANALYSIS OF NIGERIAN 2019 GENERAL ELECTION

The 2019 General Election is another milestone and a watershed in the efforts of Nigeria towards democratization. It has been the six consecutive times that General Elections are successfully conducted in the Fourth Republic which has been unprecedented in the history of the country. Since the turn of the 21st century, the transformation in opportunities presented by the rapid change from the "old" media of print journalism and terrestrial television channels, to the "new" swift advances in information and communication technology and multiple social media platforms, has had a dramatic impact on democracy today. Today, the advancement in information technologies has seen the media become an increasingly reflective force to reckon with in recent times because of its ability to reinforce the various interests and political views in the state rather than shaping the role that it had previously allowed through traditional media channels which was to preserve their own positions and promote their own interests. It is notable that elections in Nigeria for over fifty (50) years remain a warlike affair and the phenomenon seems to be continuous despite the long experience of democratic practice in the current Republic. The research used both primary and secondary sources of data analysis in Ungogo local government of Kano state. The primary sources consist of participant observation, data from the electoral body; the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and reports from observers and civil societies that directly participated in the exercise.(Sule, 2018).

Clearly, the 2019 elections were followed with great expectations because of the improvements recorded in the previous general elections in 2015. The 2015 elections generated positive perception of the electoral process for a number of reasons. For the first time in Nigeria’s electoral history, a winner emerged from the opposition party, and there was a successful alternation of power. The 2015 elections saw remarkable improvements in the incorporation of technology into the electoral process, which contributed to strengthening the integrity of the elections. Since 1999, after democratic transition, there was also a decline in election petitions that had become a common phenomenon after the announcement of election results. It was, therefore, not a surprise that international and local observers gave some positive assessments of the 2015 elections (Onapajo, 2015).

In all thrift to analysis on social media and election outcome of 2019 general election. Social media networks over the years have proven to be a great source of information and communication on a large scale leading to a vast amount of diverse datasets. This capability makes it possible to analyse large amounts of data virtually on any topic from online users. Organisations, media houses, politicians, artists, entertainers, among others, utilise social media to engage with a broader audience. Social media platforms play an instrumental role in election campaigns and other political debates, as reported in past studies. Despite the growing number of studies concerning the impact of social media in elections, little attention has been paid to Africa’s largest democracy (Nigeria); this motivates this study. For the study, the researcher collected a large number of tweets based on the Twitter handles of the political parties and presidential candidates. The researcher also  measured the online activities of political parties and candidates and analyzed users’ opinions to understand their sentiments.

Incidentally, in Nigeria, the everyday use of social media by politicians, and the manner in which the user-citizen interacts with the social network sites/pages of politicians has received rather less attention. Essentially, politicians expect the communication relationship to be positive and of benefit to them, thus, political gladiators of all shades of opinions, ideologies, intents and goals use the media with the belief that political communication through them might exert pressure or have an influence on people‟s perception and behaviours. This conception of the effect of social media is akin to the historical and cultural dominance of print and electronic media and the perceived hypodermic needle effect of mass media messages.  

However, going by public comments and election observers’ reports, the 2019 general elections did not meet the record of the 2015 elections. Nigerians were dissatisfied with the management of the elections by the Electoral Management Body (EMB), the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). INEC battled with logistical problems and administrative deficiencies that impacted negatively on the quality of the elections. The logistical challenges caused a sudden postponement of the presidential election six hours before its commencement on 16 February 2019. The postponement significantly dampened public expectations about the prospects of the electoral process.

Social media spread disinformation due to their characteristic features of anonymity and ease of producing, accessing, forwarding, and replicating media contents. Although studies have analyzed the influence of disinformation on voter choices, little is known about the false information that  went viral on social media during the 2019 Nigerian presidential elections and its influence on voting decisions. Accordingly, the study identified social media disinformation about Muhammadu Buhari (All Progressives Congress) and Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party), and it’s  influence on voting decisions. Content analysis of Twitter, Facebook and YouTube posts revealed 10 viral pieces of disinformation about the  contestants. Although the messages looked authentic because of their attribution, they were tagged false by independent fact checkers and  disclaimers.

It was found out that twitter was mostly used by the parties and their candidates to put across campaign promises and canvas vote from the public, the civil society used twitter for engagements and discussing the available candidates thereby leading to availability of much information about them, creating awareness for the wide array of social media users. 

The main objective of this study is determine the social media outcome analysis of Nigeria General Election 2019, The study specifically seeks to:

i. To determine the impact of the social media on youths participation in the 2019 Nigeria general elections

ii To examine the impacts of social media on political participation in the 2019 Nigeria General election..

iii To examine social media influence on the perception on politicians‟ image

iv To understand the believability level of what Citizens read on social media.

v. To examine the degree of Citizens regarding social media messages as credible.

i. What are the impacts of social media on political participation in the 2019 Nigeria general elections? 

ii. Does social media influence the perception of politicians‟ image? 

iii. What is the believability level of what Citizens read on social media? 

iv. To what degree do Citizens regard social media messages as credible?

These studies examine the impact on social media related to the general election that occurred in 2019 with  a case study of the Ungogo local government area of Kano state. 

i. Firstly, the significance of this study will be found in the gap it fills by answering its research questions. Secondly, the research will be of immense benefit to politicians, political parties, media consultants, electoral umpires and government across all levels as it will help them to know and appreciate the gains and efficacy of using social media tools and how best to handle it for projecting the image of their clients and increasing awareness of the political candidates.

ii. The findings of this study will contribute to the sustainable development of democracy in Nigeria. The youth are the future and drivers of any country, therefore conducting research/studies into their political, social behavior is of paramount importance (Adedeji, 2015). 

iii. Finally, this study will be of great benefit to researchers and other seekers of knowledge in academia, as it will contribute to the existing literature on usefulness of social media in politics and also widen the current expansive knowledge in it.

The scope of this study extends to a critical examination of the impact of social media outcome on general election 2019.  In order to have  a special focus on the research work, the researcher narrowed down the scope of the study to the Ungogo local government election of Kano state. The researcher focused on the area because it was used as a case of study.

Social Media: Wikipedia Explained Social media are interactive digital channels that facilitate the creation and sharing of information, ideas, interests, and other forms of expression through virtual communities and networks. While challenges to the definition of social media arise due to the variety of stand-alone and built-in social media services currently available, there are some common features which are:

Elections: An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual or multiple individuals to hold public office. Elections have been usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. Elections may fill offices in the legislature, sometimes in the executive and judiciary, and for regional and local government. This process is also used in many other private and business organizations, from clubs to voluntary associations and corporations.

The global use of elections as a tool for selecting representatives in modern representative democracies is in contrast with the practice in the democratic archetype, ancient Athens, where the elections were considered an oligarchic institution and most political offices were filled using sorting, also known as allotment, by which officeholders were chosen by lot. ( Cantor, R. D. (2010).

i. Chapter one deals with the background to the study as well as objectives of the study, research questions, significance and scope of the study. 

ii. Chapter two explains the concepts; political participation, social media and social media and politics and the 2019 Nigerian general elections. It also explained the agenda-setting theory and its links to the study. Related works to the study in focus were also reviewed in the empirical section of the chapter and finally, the research’s hypotheses were stated. 

iii. Chapter three looks at the research design, methodology and instrumentation for the study. It also looked at population, sampling as well as data collection and analysis for the study and the ethical considerations of the study.

iv. Chapter four discussed the result and analysis that was obtained from the research.

v. Lastly chapter five discussed the conclusion and summary of the research