ABSTRACT
The study, titled Vulnerability
and Coping Strategies to Climate Change Hazards Among FADAMA III Farmers in
Abia State, Nigeria, assessed the level of vulnerability of FADAMA III
farmers to climate change and their coping strategies. Using a multi-stage
sampling technique, 120 farmers across six Local Government Areas were
selected. Data were gathered via structured questionnaires and analyzed using
descriptive statistics, Tobit, and Probit regression models. The results
indicated that farmers were generally aware of climate change, influenced by
extension agents, cooperative groups, and media. Their awareness was reflected
in their identification of major climate hazards such as soil erosion,
flooding, and reduced harmattan. The socioeconomic analysis revealed that the
farmers had an average age of 48 years, predominantly male (69%), with a mean
farming experience of 10 years and farm size of 2.7 hectares. The majority were
literate (76%) and engaged in multiple adaptive strategies, including multiple
cropping (92%), planting short-season crops (85%), and crop diversification
(72%). Factors such as age, education, farming experience, access to credit,
and cooperative membership influenced vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Constraints
faced by the farmers included institutional challenges such as lack of credit
facilities, limited access to climate information, and inadequate government
responsiveness. The study concluded that improving adaptation capacities
through access to credit, training, and appropriate technologies could mitigate
vulnerabilities and enhance productivity under changing climatic conditions. It
recommended targeted awareness campaigns, improved extension services, and
government policies to address climate change impacts and promote food
security.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
1.2 Statement of the Problem
1.3 Objectives of the Study
1.4 Research Hypotheses
1.5 Justification of the Study
CHAPTER 2
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
2.1 Conceptual Literature
2.1.2
Climate Change: Concepts and Definitions
2.2 Causes of Climate Change
2.2.1 Deforestation
2.2.2 Desertification
2.2.3 Pollution
2.2.4
Degradation
2.2.5
Greenhouse Gases Emissions
2.2.6 Key
Greenhouse Gases
2.3 Changes in Nigeria’s Climate Parameters
2.4 Patterns of Climate Change Impact on
Agriculture
2.5 Awareness of Climate Change and Link with
Agriculture
2.6 Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture
2.7 Indigenous Coping Mechanisms Used By Farmers
2.8 Vulnerability Assessment and Conceptual
Framework of the Study
2.8.1 Conceptual Approaches to Vulnerability
Studies
2.8.2 Measuring Vulnerability to
Climate Change
2.8.3 Components of Indicators of Vulnerability and
Expected Signs
2.3: Components of Indicators of Vulnerability and
Expected Signs Cont’d.
2.9 FADAMA Project
2.9.1 Brief History of National FADAMA Project
2.9.2 FADAMA III Project in Abia
State
2.9.3 Objectives of the Project
2.10 Theoretical Framework on Climate Change,
Vulnerability and Coping Strategy
2.11 Empirical Studies on Climate Change,
Vulnerability and Coping Strategy
2.12 Analytical Framework of the Study
2.12.1 Descriptive Statistics
2.12.2 Tobit Regression
2.12.3 Probit Regression
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Description of the Study Area
3.2 Sampling Technique
3.3 Method Of Data Collection
3.4 Analytical Technique
3.5 Model Specification
CHAPTER
4
RESULTS
AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Socio-Economic
Characteristics Of FADAMA III Farmers
4.1.1 Age of the
respondent
4.1.2 Sex of the respondents
4.1.3
Marital status of the respondents
4.1.4
Household size of the respondent
4.1.5 Farm size of the respondents
4.1.6 Experience of the respondents
4.1.7 Education of the respondents
4.1.8
Cooperative membership
4.1.9
Extension contacts by the respondents
4.1.10 Access to credit by the
respondent
4.2 Awareness of Climate Change
4.2.1
Source of Information of Climate Change of FADAMA III Farmers
4.3 Severity of Climate Vulnerability by FADAMA
III Farmers in Abia State
4.4 Determinants of the Vulnerability of FADAMA
III Farmers to Climate Change
4.5 Coping Strategies Used By FADAMA III Farmers
in the Study Area
4.6
Factors Influencing the Use of Climate Change
Coping Strategies by FADAMA III Farmers
4.7 Constraints Encountered By The Farmers While
Using The Coping Strategies
CHAPTER
5
SUMMARY,
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary
5.2
Conclusion
5.3 Recommendations
References
LIST OF TABLE
Table 2.1: Projected Changes in Abia State Climate Parameters
Table 2.2: Indicators or proxy variables used in vulnerability analysis Types
of indicator
Indicator Scale
of Analysis
Table 2.3:
Components of indicators of
vulnerability and expected signs
Table
3.1: List of communities used for the
study
Table 4.1: Socio-economic characteristics of the FADAMA III Farmers
Table 4.1: Socio-economic characteristics of the FADAMA III Farmers cont’d.
Table 4.2: Distribution of the respondent based on
indicators of the awareness
of climate change
Table 4.3: Source of information on
awareness of FADAMA III on climate change.
Table 4.4: Severity
of climate vulnerability by FADAMA III farmers in Abia State
Table 4.5: Factors that make FADAMA III farmers
vulnerable to climate change
Table
4.6: Coping strategies used by FADAMA III farmers in the study
area
Table
4.7: Factors influencing the use of climate change coping
strategies by FADAMA III farmers
Table 4.8: Constraints
encountered by FADAMA III farmers while using the coping strategies
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
2.1: Air temperature distribution in
Nigeria between 1901 to 2005
Figure
2.2: Trend of climatic elements
Figure
2.3: Rainfall volume.
Figure
2.4. Conceptual framework on vulnerability assessment
Figure 3.1: Showing
map of Abia State with the various Agricultural Zones and Local Government
Areas.
CHAPTER
1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
The United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2007) defined climate change as ‘‘a change of climate
which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’’ The issue of
climate change has been a central focus in many global discussions concerning
poverty, food insecurity, environmental sustainability, human health, global
economy, and many other socio-political discussions. World population growth
has continued, and although the demand for food production has more than
doubled since the pre-industrial era, productivity is declining due to climate
change and climate variability. Empirical evidence supports climate
change-induced decline in crop and livestock productivity globally (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007; Deressa et al. (2008); Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn (2006a) and Lobell et al. (2008), especially in weather-sensitive
agricultural regions of sub-Saharan Africa.
The impact of climate change vulnerability
varies globally with its adverse effect devastating in developing regions of sub-Saharan
Africa (Kandji et al., 2006)
following rapidly declining precipitation levels, increasing temperatures, low
adaptive capacity, high dependence on natural resources, inability to detect occurrence
of extreme hydrological and meteorological events due to low technology
adoption (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2006b), limited infrastructure,
illiteracy, lack of skills, low management capabilities, weak institutions, and
information (UNFCCC, 2007), and the absence of comprehensive national
adaptation policy. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP, 2006) human
development report outlined overexploitation of land resources including
forests, increases in population, desertification, and land degradation as
additional constraints for African countries in coping with climate variability.
Temperatures are expected to rise fastest in Africa and decline in rainfall
volume is also anticipated. According to the IPCC (2007), sub-Saharan Africa is
likely to experience increases in both minimum (1.8oC) and maximum
(4.7oC) temperatures. Minimum and maximum precipitation levels are
likely to change by -9% and 13% respectively (Christensen et al., 2007). These factors, coupled with the volatile nature of
socio-political economy/environment of the continent, places Africa at a higher
risk level.
Climate change impact
refers to adverse effects of climate change on the ecosystem, livelihoods and
wellbeing of man (Enete et al.,
2011).
In southeastern
Nigeria, these facts are expressed as flooding of farmlands resulting in yield
losses, loss of farmlands to gully erosion, sheet wash that removes fertile top
soils, delayed on-set of rains and unexpected cessation of rainfall that
reduces crop yield drastic changes in land cover and biodiversity, sudden
outbreak of invasive pests and noxious weeds that lead to crop failure and food
insecurity, wind damage to economic crops or infrastructural facilities,
inconveniences or ill health resulting from heat stress (Tesfaye,
2016). Vulnerability refers to the inability to
cope with the adverse effects of climate change (Ludena and Sang, 2015). When a
farmer cannot cope with delayed on-set of rains or sudden prolonged dry spell
or unexpected early cessation of rain that results to crop failure and food
insecurity, he is vulnerable. Similarly, if a household is suddenly taken over
by flood, forcing family members to seek refuge in the homes of friends and
relatives, that household is vulnerable. Because of the high rate, frequency
and intensity at which climate change is happening, it is urgent that the
vulnerability of people is reduced and their capacity to adapt enhanced. Coping
strategy to climate change refers to responses or actions taken to minimize the
impacts of climate change for a long time (Frank, 2012). Building the capacity
of people to adapt requires proper understanding of their knowledge and coping
skills.
The degree of exposure, vulnerability of
farmers to changes in climatic variables and the adoption of some coping
strategies affect some agricultural activities such as land use and cultural
practices. The region is lagging in the development of public infrastructure,
and in strengthening the capacity of existing institutions to mitigate climate
change (Tesfaye, 2016). The impact of climate change on agricultural
productivity in such low income countries is relatively higher compared with
its impact on other sectors of the economy and the magnitude of this impact is
expected to either remain same or intensify (Maddison, 2006; Stanturf et al., 2011 and FAO, 2014).
There has therefore been a mounting fear as
to how agriculture-dependent sub-Saharan economies cope with climate extremes
and climate variability. To this end, the unanswered question on climate change
related issues about Africa is: ‘‘will African agriculture survive climate
change?’’ (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2006b). Though there have been mixed
predictions on the impact of climate change on African agriculture, it is
established that African countries cannot neglect the impact of climate change
and climate variability on the economic well-being of their growing population
and expanding food demand. A general consensus points to declining net revenues
with warming and decreasing precipitation levels for dry land crops and
livestock production in the region (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2006a). The
rural agricultural-dependent economy is also estimated to suffer severe
economic consequences from climate change. In that, the economy essentially
depends on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and
hydroelectric energy. The needed capacity for adaptation by these sectors,
particularly the agricultural sector is greatly lacking. Reactive measures are
used to cope with climatic extreme events that are typical to the region such
as flood.
Wisner et
al. (2004) reports that the vulnerability of agriculture is not determined
by the nature and magnitude of environmental stress like climate change per se,
but by the combination of the societal capacity to cope with and/or recover
from environmental change. While the coping capacity and degree of exposure is
related to environmental changes, they are both also related to changes in
societal aspects such as land use and cultural practices. This could be at the
root of the much talked about poverty alleviation and food security for the
vulnerable groups in Africa, who are most at risk when agriculture is stressed
by climate change.
In addition, Nigeria agriculture is mainly
smallholder and most of these smallholders over time embraced the FADAMA
project which is a World Bank development program in Nigeria. The National
FADAMA Development project is executed in phases – FADAMA I, II and III
projects so far with the general objectives of sustainably and strategically
address the issue of poverty reduction especially among rural farming communities
in Nigeria, achieve increased food security and create rural job opportunities
and incomes for the beneficiaries. However, for FADAMA project to realize its
objective of achieving food security depend largely on how vulnerable the
farmers are to climate change, its awareness and the coping strategies in place
to enable the farmers properly adjust to the realities of changing climate.
Therefore, there is need for increased awareness, teaching, learning and
research by Universities and Research Institutes so as to develop a
multi-pronged capacity to tackle this imminent danger which is slowly eroding
the gains of the fight against starvation, hunger and poverty among farming
communities in Abia State and Nigeria in general.
FADAMA III farmers in
Abia State comprising livestock farmers, crop farmers, agricultural processors
etc also experience adverse climatic conditions in their various activities in
that agriculture in Nigeria is mostly rain-fed. It follows that any change in
one or some of the climatic variables is bound to affect productivity and other
socio-economic activities of the sector. The impact could be measured in terms
of crop growth, availability of soil water, soil erosion, and change in
temperature, flood, incidence of pests and diseases, sea level rises, decrease
in soil fertility and decrease in livestock production and several others
(Adejuwon, 2004).
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
In
Africa, smallholder farmers are considered to be disproportionately vulnerable
to climate change which generates hazards that affects the livelihoods of rural
communities whose primary occupation is farming (Nwokoro and Chima, 2017). Changes
in climate elements and extreme weather events directly affect their crop and
animal productivity as well as their household’s food security, income and wellbeing.
Climate hazards are not only
affecting rural areas but are also posing challenges to projects and policies
formulated by the government such as Fadama project aimed at boosting food
production and food security in Nigeria.
The possibility of achieving Nigeria’s
developmental programmes channeled towards increasing food production and to
alleviate poverty is doubtful considering the counter impact of climate change.
These vulnerable impact found in most rural
communities in the state include –soil erosion and spreading menace of flooding
as a result of increasing intensity of rainfall, which destroys community
roads; submerge homes and rural markets; increase siltation in local streams;
farmers, paying higher fares to convey their products because of longer routes;
deforestation, loss of soil fertility and leaching resulting to low crop
output, land degradation and water pollution, loss of biodiversity including
land, marine plants and wild animals, which all relatively affects the poorer segments
of the society and small scale farmers, lack of good drinking water, health
facilities causing increase in the incidence/prevalence of diseases affecting
crop and livestock, and health related problems in rural areas.
Most of climate change agriculture research
has tended to concentrate on assessing the sensitivity of various attributes of
crop/livestock systems (e.g. crop/livestock yields, pest, diseases, weeds etc.)
Enete et al. (2011), especially the
bio-physical aspects of crop/livestock production, with little or no regard to
the socio-economic aspects. These partial assessments, most often consider
climate change effects in isolation providing little insight into the level of
awareness of the farmers on the issue, what and how they are doing to cope with
climate change etc. To better address the food security concerns that are
central to economic and sustainable development agenda, local coping strategy
activities are considered bearing in mind the uncertainty and increasing impact
on the vulnerable rural poor alongside other strategic plans put in place by
the government.
Therefore, this study investigated the
various levels of vulnerability/threats faced by farmers, the various coping
strategies adopted by the farmers to enhance crop and livestock production in
the state as one of the policy measures and objectives of the FADAMA III
project in Abia State in conjunction with World Bank and the Federal government
to address issues of food security and sustainable development of the country.
In addressing the issue of vulnerability, the following questions were addressed.
1.
What are the socioeconomic characteristics of FADAMA III farmers in Abia
State?
2. What are the levels of awareness of
climate change and the links with agriculture among FADAMA III farmers in the
area?
3. What are the rank of climate change risks
by FADAMA III farmers in Abia State?
4. What are the factors that make FADAMA III
farmers vulnerable to climate change in the study area?
5. What are the coping strategies adopted by
FADAMA III farmers in the study area?
6. What are the factors influencing adoption
of climate change coping strategies by FADAMA III farmers in the study area?
7. What are the constraints encountered by
the farmers while adopting the coping strategies?
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE
STUDY
The broad objective of the study is to
determine the level of vulnerability among FADAMA III Farmers in Abia State to
climate change and how they cope with climate change hazards.
The specific objectives are to:
i. describe the socioeconomic characteristics
of FADAMA III farmers in the study area;
ii. determine FADAMA III farmers level of
awareness of climate change;
iii. identify, rank and the severity of climate
vulnerability by FADAMA III farmers in Abia State;
iv. estimate the determinants of farmers’
vulnerability to climate change in the
study area;
v. identify
and discuss the coping strategies used by FADAMA III farmers in the study area;
vi. determine factors influencing the use of
climate change coping strategies by FADAMA III farmers in the study area; and
vii. identify and discuss constraints
encountered by the FADAMA III farmers while using the coping strategies.
1.4 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
H1: Vulnerability of FADAMA III farmers to climate change is positively influenced
by sex, access to credit, and farm income, and negatively influenced by
farmer’s age, level of education, years of farming experience, membership of
cooperative group, tenancy status and knowledge of climate change.
H2: The choice of coping strategy is positively influenced by household
size, farm income, non-farm income, access to credit, extension visit, tenancy
status, knowledge of climate change and negatively influenced by age of the farmer and farm size.
1.5 JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY
FADAMA III program is more like an
agricultural diversification program, which is a paradigm shift under the
FADAMA project. It empowers FADAMA communities with resources and needed
technical training and support to properly manage and control their resources
for their own benefit in particular and community development in general by
employing the Community Development Approach/Community Driven Approach (CDA),
which is bottom-up as against top-bottom. Participating community associations
are empowered to develop participatory and socially inclusive Local Development
Plans (LDPs). Its target beneficiaries are the project economic units/small
holders, who earn their living directly or indirectly from exploitation of
natural resources in a given area so as to tackle issues of food security,
poverty and unemployment in Abia State. These natural resources and the
activities of these farmers are often affected by the adverse changes in
climatic variables thus making them vulnerable when their production activities
are stressed by climate change as noted before.
Several studies have
been conducted in Nigeria on climate change (Ayinde et al., 2011; Enete et al.
(2011); Falola et al., 2012) and also
on FADAMA I, II and III programs in Nigeria (Agbarevo and Okwoche, 2014; Akeem,
2014) etc but just few has been conducted on the vulnerability of FADAMA III
farmers to climate change, therefore there is a need to address the issue
related to climate change vulnerability and coping strategies among farm
households involved in the program.
There is need for
increased awareness, teaching, learning and research by universities and
Research institutes so as to develop a multi-pronged capacity to tackle this
imminent danger which is slowly eroding the gains of the fight against
starvation, hunger and poverty among farming communities in Abia State. The
findings from this study will therefore expose how best to bring about
increased outputs by farmers in the program and hence enhanced income and
reduced poverty. It will also be beneficial to researchers and academics
because it will provide them with (i) improved capacity to deal with issues of
climate change and agriculture; (ii) opportunities for further research in the
area and linkages with colleagues, institutions and civil society organizations
working in the area.
The study will also particularly be
beneficial to the research community in the areas of knowledge
acquisition/capacity enhancement, linkages and networking opportunities,
publications for professional growth, relevance and visibility. The finding
will be highly beneficial to the government at all levels, Non-Governmental
Organisation (NGO) for evidence based policy advocacy and public awareness
creation on climate change adaptation and mitigation. This is because the
information provided by the study will not only make the Fadama III program
successful in this area but also help to understand the challenges faced by
farmers in terms of carrying out government policies and programmes. This research
therefore hopes to equip policy makers with the needed information for
appropriate policy formulation and legislation regarding agricultural
adaptation to climate change.
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