ABSTRACT
The aim of this study was to determine the impact of climate change on food crop production with a view to achieving sustainable food production in Nigeria from 1970 to 2017. This study employed time series data of a period of 47 years, obtained from various sources spanning from 1970-2017. The sources were: National Bureau of Statistics review, National Bureau of Statistics summary and annual abstract of statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria’s economic and financial review, an online database maintained by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other relevant publications. ). Descriptive statistics (graph) was used to show the trend of crop production and climatic parameters. The exponential functional form was estimated to confirm trend in the output of rice, maize and cassava. Ordinary least square regression model was used to estimate the effect of climate and other variables on crop production. Effect of price variation on the production of rice, maize and cassava was analysed using the four functional forms of linear, exponential, semilog and Cob Douglas and the lead equation selected based on certain econometric (high R2 value, F- ratio, number of significant variables) economic and statistical criteria. Granger causality test was used to determine the effect of price variation on crop production and quadratic equation in time variable was fitted to confirm the existence of acceleration, deceleration or stagnation in rice, maize and cassava production. Based on the findings of this study, there was variation in temperature and rainfall during the study period which affected the output of crops in the study area. Also, an increase in price of produce (rice, maize and cassava), rainfall, temperature population density and time trend increases the output of rice, maize and cassava. From the result of the estimated quadratic equation in time trend variable for rice, maize and cassava production during the periods under study, the coefficient of β2 for quantity of rice produce (0.0011), maize produced (0.0009) and cassava produced (0.0941) were positively signed at 1%, 5% and 1% level of probability respectively, implying a confirmation of acceleration in the output of rice, maize and cassava during the period (1970 -2017). Therefore, there is need for governmental and non-governmental organizations to make available policies and mitigating measures such as conservation of resources, development and deployment of alternative energy sources, excessive deforestation and band on the use of toxic chemicals as well as massive campaign on greenhouse gas emission activities in the study area. More so, this research work suggests the need for programmes and seminars to intimate farmers with modern adaptation strategies especially the use of irrigation facilities to supplement rainfall in the study area.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title
Page i
Declaration ii
Certification iii
Dedication iv
Acknowledgement v
Table of Contents vi
List of Tables ix
List of Figures x
Abstract xi
CHAPTER
1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background of the Study 1
1.2
Problem Statement 6
1.3 Objectives of the Study 11
1.4 Research
Hypotheses 11
1.5
Justification 11
CHAPTER
2:
LITERATURE REVIEW 13
2.1
Conceptual Review 13
2.1.1
Concept of climate change 13
2.1.2 Impact of
climate CHANGE 15
2.1.3 Food crop
production in Nigeria 23
2.2 Theoretical
Framework 32
2.2.1 Cobweb Theory 32
2.2.2 Theory of Production 33
2.3 Empirical Review 35
2.4 Analytical Framework 42
2.4.1 Error
Correction Model (ECM) 42
2.4.2 Basic Unit Root Theory 43
2.4.3 Regression Analysis 45
2.4.4 Granger Casuality Test 47
CHAPTER 3:
RESEARCH METHOLODOLOGY 51
3.1 The Study Area 51
3.2 Method of Data Collection 53
3.3 Method of data analysis and model specification 53
CHAPTER 4:
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 58
4.1 Trends of rice, maize and
cassava production over a period of 47 years 58
4.2.1 Trend in
Rice Production from 1970-2017 58
4.2.2 Exponential function estimate to confirm trend in rice production 60
4.1.2 Trend in Maize Production from 1970-2017 61
4.1.2 Exponential Function Estimate to Confirm Trend in Maize Production 63
4.1.3 Trend in
Cassava Production from 1970-2017 64
4.1.3 Exponential Function Estimate to Confirm Trend in Cassava
Production 65
4.2 trend in climate parameter (rainfall and
temperature) 66
4.2.1 The trend
in rainfall from 1970- 2017 66
4.2.2 The Trend in Temperature from 1970- 2017 68
4.3 Effect of Climate Change Variables And Other
Variables On Crop Production
from 1970-2017 69
4.3.1 Unit root test
of the variables 69
4.3.2 Regression estimates for Effects OF Climate
Change Variables and
Other Variables ON Rice Production 70
4.3.3
Effect of climate change variables and Other Variables on Maize
production
72
4.3.4
Effect of Climate Change Variables and Other Variables on Cassava
Production
74
4.4 Effect of price variation on rice, maize and cassava production in
Nigeria 77
4.5 Acceleration, deceleration or stagnation in quantity of rice, maize
and
cassava produced during the periods under study 78
CHAPTER
5: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
79
5.1 Summary 79
5.2 Conclusion 85
5.3
Recommendations 86
References 87
LIST
OF TABLES
4.1 Exponential Function Estimate to Confirm
Trend in Rice Production 60
4.2 Exponential
Function Estimate to Confirm Trend in Maize Production 63
4.3 Exponential Function Estimate to Confirm
Trend in Cassava Production 65
4.4: Results of
ADF Unit Root Tests for Rice, Maize Cassava
production,
Mean Annual Rainfall and Mean Annual Temperature in
Nigeria 69
4.5
Regression Estimates for Effects of Climate Change Variables and
other
Variables on Rice Production 70
4.6
Regression Estimates for Effects of Climate Change Variables and
other
Variables on Maize Production 72
4.7
Regression Estimates for Effects of Climate Change Variables and
other
Variables on Cassava Production 74
4.8: Granger causality Wald
tests for Rice, Maize and Cassava Production 77
4.9 Estimates of Quadratic
Equation in Time Trend Variable for Rice, Maize and Cassava for the Periods
under Study 78
LIST
OF FIGURES
1: Trend in Rice Production (1970-2017) 58
2: Trend in Maize Production (1970-2017) 61
3: Trend in Cassava Production (1970-2017) 64
4: Trend in Rainfall (1970- 2017) 66
5: Trend in
Temperature 1970 – 2017 68
CHAPTER
1
INTRODUCTION
1.1
BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Agriculture
is one of the most important and extremely relevant sectors of Nigeria’s
economy. The roles of agriculture remain significant in the Nigeria economy
despite the strategic importance of the oil sector. Agriculture contributed
41.25% of Nigeria’s GDP in 2005 almost the same as in 2004 (Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN), 2005). Over 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and
2020 the share of agriculture in overall real GDP amounted to 41.72%, 42.01%,
42.13%, 41.70%, 40.76 %, 40.11%, 39.26%, 38.56% and 26.11% respectively
(National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2010, 2014, 2021). It is also the main
source of food, fuel and contributes to economic development. About 80% of the
country’s poor live in rural areas and work primarily in agriculture (NBS,
2006). It is a major source of raw
materials for the agro-allied industries and a potent source of the much needed
foreign exchange (World Bank, 1998; Okumadewa, 1997).
Productive
agriculture is essential to feed a growing population and sustain modern
civilization. The triple whammy problems of rapid increase in population,
climate change and pressure on resources are major constraints to adequate
agricultural production. Among the three, climate change is the most pressing
challenges that the world faces today. Regrettably, food production in Nigeria
has not kept the pace with the growing population in decades and it is
susceptible to further decrease. This decline in production is attributed to
some intertwining factors including climate change. Undoubtedly, Climate change
is a global phenomenon, the impact however, is spatially heterogeneous and the
risk is generally believed to be more acute in developing countries considering
the region’s limited human, institutional and financial capacity (United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2007).
Climate
change is changes in the natural atmospheric condition of the earth surface
which is brought about by emissions of certain gases i.e. the greenhouse gases
(water vapour, carbon-dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O),
methane (CH4) and Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). These gases bring about
devastating effect on the environment such as global warming, drought,
flooding, changes in rainfall patterns etc which in turn impact negative effect
on agricultural production and hence, food supply. Climate change is also seen
as the drastic alteration in the natural components of the atmospheric
environment with the resultant adverse responses. It is the shift in weather
variations or patterns involving overall and unprecedented changes in weather
patterns, which may include unusual changes in rain fall or precipitation,
temperature, density or cloud look (Patrick, 2012). According to
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change is defined as
statistically significant variations that persist for an extended period,
typically decades or longer (Ibrahim et al, 2010). Climate change can then be
regarded as changes in the atmospheric condition of the earth surface which is brought
about by emissions of certain gases due to natural occurrences and human
activities.
Climate
change is marked with increased intensity and frequency of storms, drought and
flooding, altered hydrological cycles and precipitation variance and these have
implications for future food availability [Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO)], 2007). Climate variability is rapidly becoming the most important
environmental challenge facing mankind. Relevant literature shows that there is
variability in Nigerian rainfall and temperature (Nwaiwu et al., 2014; Nwajiuba and Onyenke, 2010; Odjugo (2010)). Unsteady
temperature and rainfall pattern could be due to effects of climatic change in
the area and according to Arnell (1992) climatic variability could result in
changes in rainfall distribution. FAO (2006) estimated 25% loss of cereals, 37%
loss of root and tubers and 53% loss of fruits in developing world as a result
of factors ranging from weather conditions, production practices to harvesting,
handling to processing . It is projected that crop yield in Africa may fall by
10-20% by 2050 or even up to 50% due to climate change (FAO, 2006).
There
is a growing consensus in the scientific literature that in the coming decades
the world will witness higher temperatures and changing precipitation levels.
The effects of this will lead to low/poor agricultural products. Evidence has
shown that climate change was already affecting crop yields in many countries
(IPCC, 2007a; Deressa et al, 2008; Building Nigeria’s Response to
Climate Change (BNRCC), 2008). This is particularly true in low-income
countries, where climate is the primary determinant of agricultural
productivity and adaptive capacities are low (SPORE, 2008; Apata et al,
2009). Many countries, which have their economies largely based on
weather-sensitive agricultural productions systems like Nigeria, are
particularly vulnerable to climate change (Dinar et al, 2006). Nigeria’s
agriculture therefore depends heavily on climate because temperature, sunlight,
water, relative humidity are the main drivers of crop growth and yield. This
vulnerability has been demonstrated by the devastating effects of recent
flooding in the Niger Delta region of the country and the various prolonged droughts
that are currently witnessed in some parts of Northern region.
The
actual and potential impacts of climate change in Nigeria are considerable and
have far reaching effects. All sectors of socioeconomic development, including
agriculture are vulnerable to climate change. It presents significant threats
to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals especially those related
to eliminating poverty and hunger and promoting environmental sustainability.
Food insecurity remains a critical challenge to the world’s poor today.
According to recent estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations, one in nine people in the world and about a quarter of those in
sub-Saharan Africa are unable to meet their dietary energy requirements in
2014-15 (FAO 2015). Food production is one of the components of food security.
Although a range of factors influence food security (FAO, 1996), food crop
production plays a major role.
Rice,
maize and cassava respectively, are the largest cereal and tuber crops
cultivated around Nigeria. According to data from FAO (2012), they make up more
than 75% and 85% of cereal and 70% of tuber production in 2010, respectively.
These crops are crucial for the fight against food insecurity in Nigeria since
they are major sources of food in several parts of the country. Many people and
most households in Nigeria depend on cereals and tuber as a contributing, if
not principal, source of food and nutrition (CBN, 2005). Rice and maize are
important grains in Nigeria, not only on the basis of the number of farmers
that engaged in the cultivation, but also in their economic value. Cassava is
grown throughout the year, making it preferable to the seasonal crops of yam,
beans or peas. It displays an exceptional ability to adapt to climate change
(Federal Ministry of Agriculture FMA, 2012) with a tolerance to low soil
fertility, resistance to drought conditions, pests and diseases, and
suitability to store its roots for long periods underground even after they
mature.
The
other factor contributing to problems of food insecurity and hunger is an
increase in the level and volatility of food prices. In fact, rising population
and climate change are the major causes of high and volatile food prices (Braun
& Tadesse, 2012). Policy responses towards climate change and population
growth will therefore directly affect price changes. Generally, food prices in
Nigeria exhibit some behaviour through time. Olukosi and Isitor (1990) and
Okuneye (2008) noted that such behaviour included seasonal patterns of change,
yearly variations, trends and cycles. But of all these changes, seasonal price
changes stand out as the most distinct feature of agricultural commodities. It
is common to see highly reduced market prices of food crops particularly during
harvest time and skyrocketed prices in off seasons. This scenario is quite
common with food grains and vegetables. These price variations often determine
the level of access and consumption of these food crops by households. Lack of
or complete absence of reliable storage facilities for harvested food crops
coupled with poor and crude processing methods again limit the market supply of
foods.
Unstable
prices for important food staples can have acute economic, social, and
political consequences (Timmer 1995). Highly unstable prices can lead to
inefficient agricultural production decisions, especially when markets for
credit and risk are poorly developed. The human costs of food price shocks can
be disastrous for the poor, because food staples often constitute a large share
of poor farmers’ incomes and poor consumers’ expenditures. Food price
instability is a frequent forerunner of macroeconomic shocks and political
turmoil, which discourage long-run investment and curtail growth. Agricultural
prices vary because production and consumption are variable (Gilbert and Morgan
2010). Economists have distinguished between predictable and unpredictable
variability, the latter being characterized in terms of shocks. Shocks to
production and consumption transmit into price variability. Production can vary
either because of variations in area planted or because of yield variations,
typically owing to weather (Gilbert 2010).
Unfortunately
however, the problems of food price fluctuations may sometimes not be
adequately resolved through the maintenance of large silos of grains (for
example) across the country. This position was supported by Idiku et al (2012)
and who observed that, despite the release of several thousand metric tonnes of
food grains from the National Strategic Food grains Reserves in 2011 and 2012
to cushion the effects of climate change on agricultural production, the market
prices of most of these food grains remained largely unchanged (high).
1.2
PROBLEM STATEMENT
Agriculture remains the main source of livelihood for most rural communities in
developing countries in general. But from available literature, it is
disheartening to note that this important sector of the economy is compromised
by climate change and thereby posing problem of food production. Due to
inadequate food production from agriculture, the many are hungry and
under-nourished as food production is a direct correlate of agriculture
productivity. More than 36% of the working adult populations of Nigeria are
employed in the agricultural sector directly and indirectly. This feat ranks
the sector as the largest employer of labour in the country. Over 90% of
Nigeria's agricultural output comes from the smallholders farmers who are more
than 80% of Nigerian farmers. (Agricultural Report, 2021). Despite these
contributions, Crosson (1997) pointed out that considering the lower
technological and capital stocks, the agricultural sector in developing
countries is unlikely to withstand the additional pressures imposed by climate
change without a concerted response strategy.
Nigeria
is experiencing adverse climatic conditions with negative impacts on the
welfare of millions of people as well as crop production. Persistent droughts
and flooding, off season rains and dry spells have sent growing seasons out of
orbit, on a country dependent on a rain fed agriculture (Medugu, 2008).
Nigerian agriculture is almost entirely rain-fed hence inherently susceptible
to the vagaries of weather. Only about a million hectare is currently irrigated
in Nigeria out of the total 30.5 million arable hectares of land (Madu et al., 2010). As global warming
accelerates, it is expected that agricultural adaptation to climate change can
only be meaningful, if irrigated agriculture gains prominence. Agriculture in
Nigeria is therefore particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change
(FAO, 2008a; Medugu, 2008; International Funds for African Development IFAD,
2007). The consequences are that the increasing frequency and severity of
droughts are likely to cause: crop failure; high and rising food prices;
distress sale of animals; de-capitalization, impoverishment, hunger, and
eventually famine.
How
much one can hold climate responsible for changes in agricultural productivity
in Nigeria will, for a long time, remain a subject of research as long as other
factors are at interplay in determining agricultural productivity. The
production of major food crops in the country have declined in magnitude since
the drought of 1972/73. The persistent sahelian drought of 1969 – 73 (Glantz,
1976) and later the spell of 1979 – 83 (Nicholson, 1986) are the first
outstanding evidence of climate change in Nigeria. Though there is evidence of
increase in food crop production generally in Nigeria, the nation is not self sufficient
in production of any food crop. The question remains therefore as to whether
the production level will ever meet the demand level given the rate of
population growth in the country. Also, the proportion of change in production
due to impact of climate change will remain an important research focus as well
as measures needed to improve the resilience of the farmers to enable them
adapt to climate change (Adejuwon, 2016).
A recent research has shown that rice can be
used to offset the major impacts of climate change because of its potentials
and unique properties as a food crop for urban poor and rural rice-growing
populations (Manneh et. al. 2007).
Rice is a major cereal in Nigeria in terms of its output and land area. The
crop is currently grown in more than 70% of the states in the country. In spite
of availability of cultivable land area, the current level of demand for rice
in Nigeria is about 5 million metric tonnes which is more than twice the
quantity produced (2.2 metric tonnes). At present about 4.9 million hectares
are suitable for rice production but just about 1.8 (37%) are currently
utilized for cultivation (Joshua et. al.
2011). To amend the problem, West African Rice Development Association (WARDA),
International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and ministry of
agriculture are frequently improving adaptation measures in rice agriculture in
Nigeria.
In
addition, Nigeria governments have invested more to increase rice production
than other cereals. In 2009 for instance, the nation spent more than 66.67
million US dollars in public-private partnership schemes to improve the
irrigation systems and set up about 17 new rice processing mills (FMA, 2012).
The major problems associated with rice production include drought, flooding,
salt stress and extreme temperatures, all of which are expected to worsen with
climate change. Drastic changes in rainfall patterns and rise in temperatures
will introduce unfavourable growing conditions into the cropping calendars
thereby modifying growing seasons which could subsequently reduce the crop
productivity.
Maize
is a major important cereal crop being cultivated in the rainforest and the
derived savanna zones of Nigeria (Iken and Amusa, 2014). The importance of the
maize crop cannot be over-emphasised. According to Dowswell et al. (1996), maize has been put to a
wide range of uses than any other cereal: as human food, as a feed grain, a
fodder crop, and for hundreds of industrial purposes because of its broad
global distribution, its low price relative to other cereals, its diverse grain
types, and its wide range of biological and industrial properties. Despite its
high yield potential, maize production is however faced with numerous constraints.
One of the major constraints is intermittent drought during the growing season,
which, significantly reduce maize yield (Ayanlade and Odekunle, 2006).
Research
has also proved that cassava as a crop is not left out in the menace of climate
change. Cassava is a staple of choice across cultures and social divides in
Nigerian households. It plays an important role in household food security.
Cassava is a popular energy food in most of the tropics where its production
and yield are prolific and has several advantages compared with other
carbohydrate sources, especially other root crops; it has a high productivity
under marginal climatic and soil fertility conditions, which result in a low
cost raw material (Henry and Westby, 2001). The majority of the tuber produced
is consumed locally as traditional meals. It is the most important crop by
production, and the second most important by consumption (FAO, 2014). Africa
produces over 54% of the world’s cassava, with Nigeria taking the global lead
with a production of about 54.8 million MT in 2014 (FAO, 2014). Nevertheless,
Nigeria’s average yield of 7.7 MT per hectare, is very low compared to the 23.4
MT and 22.2 MT average yield per hectare produced respectively in Indonesia and
Thailand, the other leading cassava producers in the world (FAO, 2014). Cassava
is grown in all agro-ecological zones of Nigeria, but thrives in the rainforest
and derived savannah areas. Production is highest in the North Central and
South-South regions (Sahel, 2016). Despite advances in agricultural technology,
cassava production remains uncertain and average crop yield is still low (Henry
and Westby, 2001). Climate is claimed to be a factor in yield variations
(Hershey et al., 2001).
Declining
agricultural productivity in the face of rapid population growth as a result of
climate change is worrisome and cause for a great concerned. World Bank (2012)
estimates the population of Nigerian to be above 160 million people, while
United Nations (2018) estimates it to above 197 million people the largest in
Africa almost accounting for 47% of West Africa’s total population. As the
population increases, the country’s demand for food increases, while the
ability to produce food diminishes because pressures from the growing
population in form of desertification, climate change and erosion are also
impacting on the already diminishing resources and further threatening food
production. This thus creates a huge food supply deficit among Nigerians as
food demand far outstripped the level of supply, creating an immense pressure
on the available food items with the attendant increases in market prices.
The
foregoing make the study of the impact of climate change on food crop
production very important. This study therefore examined the average effects of
climate and other variables on production of three of Nigeria’s principal
staple food crops, namely rice, maize and cassava from 1970 to 2017. These
crops are crucial for the fight against food insecurity since they are major
sources of food in the country.
Specifically, the study x-rayed the impact of change in climate and
weather extremes on food crop production in Nigeria. The following research
questions guided this research
i.
What are the trends of rice, maize and
cassava production in Nigeria?
ii.
What is the trend of climatic parameters
(rainfall and temperature) within the reference period?
iii.
What are the significant effects of change
in climate and other variables on the production of rice, maize and cassava in
Nigeria?
iv.
How does price variation affect rice,
maize and cassava production in Nigeria?
v.
Is there acceleration, deceleration or
stagnation in the growth processes of rice, maize and cassava in Nigeria within
the reference period?
1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The broad objective of
this study was to determine the impact of climate change on food crop
production with a view to achieving sustainable food production in Nigeria from
1970 to 2017. To achieve this aim, the objectives were to:
i.
describe the trend of rice, maize and
cassava production in Nigeria;
ii.
estimate the trend of climatic parameters
(rainfall and temperature) within the reference period;
iii.
estimate the effects of change in climate
and other variables on the production of rice, maize and cassava in Nigeria;
iv.
examine the effect of price variation on rice,
maize and cassava production in Nigeria; and
v.
confirm acceleration, deceleration or
stagnation in the growth processes of rice, maize and cassava in Nigeria within
the reference period.
1.4 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
The
following hypotheses were tested in the study
H1:
There is no acceleration in the growth processes of rice, maize and cassava maize
in Nigeria within the reference period.
H2: Crop production is positively influenced by
price, climatic factors and negatively influenced by population density.
1.5 JUSTIFICATION
This work was focused on the impact of climate
change on food crop production in Nigeria. This study is imperative because the
rural sector is the bedrock of agricultural food production in Nigeria.
Therefore understanding the effects of climate change will help the farmers to
mount appropriate strategies to keep food crop production profitable to
matching the varying trend in farming activities.
The result of this study will fill the research gap
and as such be a useful guide to extension agents and providing adequate and
necessary information on the extent to which climate has affected food
production. Therefore, the information will help the government to make
policies on how to check the effects of climate and price changes in Nigeria in
general.
The information will serve as a body of knowledge
for agricultural extension workers who teach the farmers on improved farming
practices. It will also identify farmer’s coping strategies and hindrances to
adaptations, as well as helping farmers to reduce the effects of climate change
on food crop production
The study will also add to the existing literature
on climate change and its impacts on food crop production and serve as a
working document for researchers who may be interested in researching on
related topics.
Finally,
the study is expected to stimulate interest in the further research in veiling
the adverse effect of climate change on food crop production,
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