APPLICATION OF PRINCIPAL COMPONENT AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE RATE OF CRIME IN NIGERIA (A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIA PRISON KADUNA)

ABSTRACT

This research work consider principal component and time series analysis as analyzing tools to reduce the dimensionality of a large number of interrelated variable; while retaining as much of the information as possible and to model and forecast crime rate in Nigeria. The data used in this study was obtained from Nigeria prison service Kaduna from 2006 to 20017. It comprises of robbery, murder, assaults, thefts, rape, forgery, house-breaking cheating, fight and kidnapping crimes record to determine the number of PC to retain 10 variables. The result of the analysis shows that the first two components PCI and PC₂ gives more significant contribution, of the total variables of the data Nigeria have certain degree of criminal record. In addition, the study explores the feasibility for the application of box Jenkins approach to time series (ARIMA) in modeling and forecasting crimes in Nigeria. The linear combination for PCI analysis shows us that robbery crime receives the highest weight value of 0.196, which indicates that robbery can be use to analyze the rate of crime in Nigeria Five models were identified and one was selected for estimation ARIMA (0,1,1) which has the minimum HQC and large P-value. The forecast shows that in the future, crime will increase as 2022 will record approximately 334 cases of robbery and the trend of robbery will be fluctuating.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE  

DECLARATION                                                                                  II

CERTIFICATION                                                                                   III

DEDICATION                                                                                      IV

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT                                                                   V

ABSTRACT                                                                                  VI

TABLE OF CONTENT                                                            VII

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 INTRODUCTION                                                         1

1.1   AIM AND OBJECTIVES                                                      3

1.2    SCOPE OF COVERAGE                                                       4

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW AND STATISTICAL TOOL(s)                   5

2.1 INTRODUCTION                                                        5

2.2 LITERATURE REVIEWS                                                   5

2.3 STATISTICAL TOOLS                                                     9

CHAPTER THREE

METIIODOLOGY AND DATA PRESENTATION                  21

3.0 INTRODUCTION                                                  21

3.1 METHODOLOGY                                                                   21

3.2 METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION                            21

3.3 PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED IN DATA COLLECTION          22

3.4             DATA PRESENTATION                            23

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT                26

4.1       INTRODUCTION                                                 26

4.2       DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT            26

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0       CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION                34

5.1 CONCLUSION                                                                  34

5.2       RECOMMENDATIONS                                         34

REFERENCE                                                   36

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Crime is a phenomenon that is bedeviling various countries across the globe in varying degrees as it affects policies and development. Any nation striving towards development must reduce the frequency of crime to the barest minimum. In recent years in Nigeria, there has been an upsurge in the frequency of crime committed. This has led to palpable fear among the populace as security of lives and properties can no longer be guaranteed. The phenomenon of crime has impacted negatively on the economic, social and political life of the nation over time. The youth population of any nation represents the driving force for development. However, for the, youths to become useful resources, they must be gainfully employed. The youths are also the most volatile when their energies are misdirected or channeled into wrong endeavors. Available data show that youth employment is very rampant in Nigeria and this has contributed immensely to their involvement in criminal activities. The paper argues that criminal activities such as armed robbery, kidnapping, political thuggery, militancy and other social vices found among the unemployed and jobless youths have contributed greatly to the slow pace of development in Nigeria. The paper proffers that addressing youths’ unemployment will stern the tide of crime and foster rapid development in Nigeria.

Crime in Nigeria

Crime rate in Nigeria has assumed a worrisome dimension. In the light of the worsening crime situation, and the ineffectiveness of the crime control apparatuses, Nigeria can be deemed to have1 a crime problem. Nigeria is among the developing countries of the world, and is experiencing a prevalence of rising crime waves, criminal intentions and varying degree of delinquencies. Nigeria has been on the global crime map since 1980s. The nature of these crimes includes armed robbery, murder, rape, car theft, burglary, fraud, bribery and corruption, food and drug adulteration, gambling, smuggling, human trafficking, kidnapping, drug trafficking, money laundering, internet scam, advanced fee fraud (419) and other illegal activities. A report revealed a “training school” for jobless youths as armed robbers at Ajegunle area of Lagos. The said training school according to that report includes planning strategies of co-operation, launching an attack and escaping with loots. Their ages range between eighteen and twenty — eight years. The “training school also conducts interview for the recruit. It was also revealed that the training school is where the bandits prepare programmes on which area to raid and plan how to operate different types of fire arms and ammunition. Suspects were nabbed during their morning training session where they were working out modalities on a number of houses to be raided for the week (Daily Sketch, 1990; Aremu and Ahmed, 2011). Sadly, there are reports of crimes committed mostly by the youths at virtually every corner of the country. Criminality has become an integral part of the nation’s daily life. Every society across the globe has its peculiar problems and challenges. Nigeria is not an exception. As a developing country, she faces her own share of social, political, economic and cultural problems which has in no small measure affected the well-being of the populace. Such problems bedeviling the country include youth’s unemployment and the rising wave of crime, which have serious implications for national development.

Unemployment rate in Nigeria has continued to be on the increase despite the abundant human and natural resources available in the country. Chronic youth’s unemployment is evident in Nigeria. Every year, thousands of graduates are produced but there are no jobs for majority of them. Nigerian streets are littered with youth hawkers who ordinarily would have found gainful employment in some enterprise. The large number of youths who are unemployed is capable of undermining democratic practice as they constitute a serious threat if engaged by the political class for clandestine and criminal activities.
On the other hand, crime is often perceived to be threatening the fabric of society or as a symptom of a breakdown of the social order. Crime is dysfunctional as it threatens the stability of society and it is therefore, a social problem that requires a concerted effort towards finding a lasting solution to it. It undermines the social fabric by eroding the sense of safety and security.

The media, both print and electronic is awash daily with reports of crimes committed and the seeming helplessness of the law enforcement agents especially the police, in curbing the ugly and disturbing trend has made it more worrisome. Crime is a universal phenomenon and differs only in degree among the various nations of the world.

The Nigerian crime problem is multidimensional and is capable of undermining its corporate existence as well as efforts towards sustainable development. A number of factors among which is an escalating and uncontrolled crime problem can undermine the Nigeria corporate existence and development. Security and crime have been deeply rooted in the political history of this country, particularly in recent time, which has emerged as a key concept in Nigeria’s struggle for good governance, sustainable democracy and development.

1.3    AIM AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of the research is to use principal component and time series analysis to study crime rate in Nigeria.

The objectives of the research are as follows

1. To determine the number of crime that is committed most.

2. To estimate the highest crime committed in the country base on the range of data.

3. To estimate the statistical model (ARIMA) that can be use to study crime rate in Nigeria

4. To identify the best candidate model (ARIMA) that will be use to study past robbery cases in Nigeria

5. To predict or forecast the rate of crime of robbery crime rate in Nigeria.

1.4    SCOPE OF COVERAGE

The data used in this study was obtained from the Nigeria Prison Service Kaduna states from 1997 to 2008. It comprised of robbery, murder, assaults, theft, rape, forgery, house breaking, cheating, fight, and kidnapping crime records.

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