ABSTRACT
This research analyzed the maternal mortality rate of Sabon Gari Local Government Area of Kaduna State from 2013-2022. The researcher used a secondary data, from monitoring and evaluation office of Sabon Gari Local Government Area. The statistical tool used are time series, quadratic model was selected as the best model out of the four models used which are linear, exponential growth quadratic and S-curve because it has the minimum accuracy measure (MAPE, 23.9072, MAD 2.3685, MSD 7.3158). the quadratic model is Yt=22.17 – 3.10t +0.174t2 + et which shows that on the average the rate of maternal mortality in Sabon Gari Local Government would decrease by approximately 3 case annually and 22 case is recorded on average annually. The forecast for maternal mortality rate from 2013-2022 is 9,10,11,13 and is respectively, using the available data and the selected model from 2022, maternal mortality rate in Sabon Gari Local Government area of Kaduna State would experience an increase in some years to come.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE PAGE i
DECLARATION ii
CERTIFICATION iii
DEDICATION iv
ACKNOWNLEDGEMENTS v
ABSTRACT vi
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study 1
1.1.1 Types of Maternal Mortality 1
1.2 Statement of Problems 2
1.3 Aim and Objectives 2
1.4 Significance of the Study 2
1.5 Scope of the Study 2
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction 3
2.2 Maternal Mortality 3
2.2.1 Analytical Models of Maternal Mortality 6
2.2.2 Measurement of Maternal Mortality 7
2.3 Factors Affecting Maternal Mortality 10
2.3.1 Social Factors 11
2.3.2 Cultural Factors 14
2.4 Efforts Regarding Maternal Mortality 18
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Method of Data Collection 20
3.2 Statistical Tool Used 20
3.3 Time Series Analysis 20
3.4 Component of Time Series 20
3.5 Mathematical Model of Time Series 21
3.6 The Trend Measurement 22
CHAPTER FOUR
DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
4.1 Introduction 24
4.2 Data Presentation 24
4.3 Analysis and Discussion of the Results 26
4.4 Interpretation 28
CHAPTER FIVE
SUYMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary 29
5.2 Conclusion 29
5.3 Recommendation 30
REFERENCES 31
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 4. 1: Chart for Maternal Mortality Rates from 2013 to 2022 25
Figure 4. 2: Pie chart for Maternal Mortality Rates from 2013 to 2022 25
Figure 4. 3: Time Series Plot for Maternal Mortality Rates from 2013 to 2022 26
Figure 4. 4: A Plot for actual maternal mortality rates data, fit, forecast, estimated model and accuracy measures 27
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
The international classification of diseases (ICD 10) revision 2004 defined maternal mortality as the death of a woman during pregnancy or child bearing or within 48 days of termination of pregnancy irrespective of causes of death.
From 1996 five yearly estimation of maternal mortality have been provided in 2005, just under 536000 maternal deaths were estimated to have occurred globally, in 2008 around 343000 women died and the most recent estimate account to 289000 deaths for 2013 therefore, there is progress but their concern that this is not enough to meet the millennium development goals (MDG) target of 759 reductions in maternal mortality by 2015 compared to 1990 level. In addition, it must be noted that for many countries accurate data are not available and we continue to rely on estimate. Countries were maternal mortality is high are those with the least accurate data.
1.1.1 Types of Maternal Mortality
i. Direct Maternal Death: This refers to death result from obstetric complication of pregnancy, labour and death, from post-partum hemorrhage (PPH).
ii. Indirect Maternal Death: This refers to death resulting from the worsening of an existing condition by pregnancy or delivery e.g. death from HIV/AIDS, anemia, malaria, diabetes, sickle cell diseases.
1.2 Statement of Problems
Maternal mortality has been an order of the day in our present day societies in such a way that women have difficulties in the process of child birth, which lead to lose of lives from complications and negligence. This is why application of statistical tool would be used as an avenue to eradicate the rate of maternal death.
1.3 Aim and Objectives
The main aim of these research is to study the trend of maternal mortality rate in Sabon Gari Area of Kaduna State. The following are the objectives of the study
i. To construct a model for maternal mortality rate.
ii. To forecast the future accurate maternal mortality.
1.4 Significance of the Study
To explore the key social determinant for maternal health that will help to reduce maternal mortality rate among women also find a way which African countries can manage the social factor related to maternal mortality.
1.5 Scope of the Study
The research is carried out using secondary data covering 10 years period on maternal mortality rate in Sabon Gari Local government area of Kaduna State. Four statistical model are used i.e. (linear, s-curve, quadratic and exponential growth) used in this project.
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