1.1
Background to the
Study
Population in a
developing country such as Nigeria is growing at a historical unprecedented rate.
In the world over, the possible differences between number of people and world
food production brings to resurrect the Malthusian hypothesis that long-run
equilibrium consumption lies on higher than at the subsistence level. For
individual countries or regions, the arithmetic observation that greater number
of mouths to feed means lower consumption for each has won some supporters.
More advanced views of the impacts of population growth on the age structures
labour force, investment levels and social needs have also been formulated.
Numbers of people and their rates of growth are said also to affect the
military strength, world influence, territorial security, and mostly on the
importation of consumable goods.
Conversely, a
large population supports greater specialization and a large increase in market
return to human capital and knowledge.
Hence, the link
between greater population and economic growth depends on whether the
incentives to human capital and expansion of knowledge are stronger than diminishing
return to natural resources. The large population implies a large market for
imported consumable goods and services as well as large pool of human resources
for development. Although, the impact of population on development depends on
the absolute size but also on its quality.
However, from the
stand point of international trade, it is said that exports enriches a nation,
while imports impoverish a nation and that for any nation to improve it’s
wellbeing, it has to specialize in and export the relatively less expensive
domestic goods that are relatively more expensive. This inter-dependency of
nations in the international trade is a vital factor for economic progress of
nations. Consequently, exploit are normally hampered in the developing country
such as Nigeria due to the fact that Nigeria’s economy is based on petroleum,
long hobbled by political instability, corruption and poor macroeconomic
management is undergoing substantial economic reform under the new civilian
administration. Nigeria leaders over the years failed to diversify the economy.
The economy has over-dependence on the capital-intensive oil sector, which
provides 20% of revenue. The largely subsistence agricultural sector has not
kept up with rapid population growth. Now the debate triggered by the
Malthusian hypothesis points to a lack of universal applicability of his
paradigm because in industrial countries, technological advances have spurred
increases in agricultural production, which ensures food security for the
citizens. For those countries his predictions are somewhat neglected, whereas a
large number of developing countries remain trapping under conditions capable
of validating them.
The effort of
governments in the developing countries to feed their people and also provide
quality social services for them are being frustrated by rapid population
growth. This growth is attributable on the one hand, improvement in human
survival associated with the application of modern medical science to health
matters, better sanitation and immunization of children, which have caused the
death rate to decrease (Ashford 2001, United Nations, 2001). On the other hand,
the traditional beliefs about the value of children particularly sons, as an
asset to be relied upon by their parents in agricultural production and to
support them during old age have combined with the practice of polygamy, the
fear of child mortality and low level of female education to encourage high
fertility. Moreover, the continuity of the peritoneal decent group and the influence
of religions which teach that children are gift from God sharply limit the
prospects for lowering the birth rate (for details, see Lee and Miller 1990,
Renne 1995, Ainsworth 1996 and National population commission, 2003.
Consequently, the
world population has been increasing and the last two decades haven been
demographically unprecedented as it rose from 4.8 billion people in 1985 to 6.
4 billion in 2004. Much of this increase occurred in the developing nations as
their populations grew from 3.7 billion to 5.1 billion as against that of
developed nations which grew from 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion over the same
period (United Nations, 2001b; population Reference Bureau, 2004). When it is
noted that the high fertility countries are mainly resources constrained with
low levels of social and economic development, it becomes obvious why they have
accepted responsibility to control growth of their population through
endorsement of family planning programmes mapped out at various international
conferences organized by the United Nations (United Nations, 1998).
Nigeria is a high
fertility country and there is evidence that it large population inhabits
government’s effort in meeting the basic needs of the people. With a population
that already exceeds 130 million people and growing at roughly 3 percent
annually, (United Nations, 2004) a considerable proportion of the country’s
resources is, doubtless, consumed instead of being accumulated as capital for
development purposes. To that extent, the rate of development lags behinds that
of population growth, which triggers stagnation in social service delivery.
This necessarily impedes whatever progress being achieved in the fight against
poverty.
Nigerians is
regarded as one of the country with the largest human population in African and
popular regarded as the Giant of African for its population and the tenth in
the world. These include the major sources, viz, the census and the world
population data.
Nigeria
has engaged in many censuses in its fifty six years of existence. Among many
others, censuses were taken and restricted to only Lagos Island and part of the
mainland in 1866, 1871 and 1896. Many urban towns were included in the censuses
of 1911 and 1921. There were variations in the Northern and Southern protectorate
as regards the census conducted. Though, the two were based mostly on estimates
(NPC, 1998).
No
effort was made to conduct census in 1941 due to Second World War. This was
conducted in 1952/53. It was elaborated but probably under enumerated the
population of Nigeria. After the independent of Nigeria on 1st of
October, 1960 census was carriedout in 1962,but was nullified and another one
was conducted in 1963 (Ekanem, 1972). The result of this census was nullified
by the Supreme Court in addition. The result of 1973 census was unacceptable
(NPC, 1998).
1991
witnessed another census taking and Post Enumeration Survey (PES) in Nigeria.
It was a successful attempt and it provided a robust set of socio-economic and
demographic data for social and economic planning. The total population as at
1991 was 88,992,220, sixteen years later that was, in 2006 another headcount
was conducted. The headcount revealed that the total population was more than
140 million.
Since
the second half of 1986 when the country embraced the implementation of trade
liberalization, Nigeria had remained a leading importer of food items. This is
inspite of the fact that about 65% of the total labour force was engaged in
small–holder food production that contributes about 35% of the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP). The major food items imported are rice, wheat, maize, or their
products, sugar and dairy products, majority of which comes from the USA, EU,
who are major actors in the Doha round and who grant subsidies to agricultural
products and hinder market access to its agro-commodities from other developing
countries – Nigeria inclusive. The cheap food imports reduce the market for
domestic agricultural product and leave many farmers and workers in the
agro-allied industries without source of income unless they are able to switch
to more profitable production (Nyangito, 2003).
This
implies that even if low cost food supplies are plentiful many may not be able
to access them. The above position was further reinforced by rising trend of
food prices in Nigeria. According to a survey by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),
2003, and the Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) the domestic producer prices
of major food items have been on the rising trend since 1999. The increase in
price was attributable to the increased cost of transportation occasioned by
upward adjustments in the prices of petroleum products and to the deplorable
state of infrastructural facilities, which increased the cost of evacuating
farm produce to the markets. The price support programme of the Federal Government
of Nigeria (Okuneye, 2001) pushed up prices by mopping up excess grains from
the nation’s strategic grains reserve programe. The net effects of these have
imposed a serious pressure on availability and access to food and thus causing
food insecurity. This scenario could probably have been accentuated by the
rising trend of foreign exchange, which tended to increase the prices of
imported farm inputs. With the identification of cassava as another tradable
product from Nigeria, Garri, an important staple food from cassava is becoming
unavailable and inaccessible. The implication of these on food security is
worthy of investigation In particular the relationship between population and
import demand for consumable goods for close scrutiny.
Moreover, Nigeria
had also turn to dumping ground for all kinds of imported consumable goods and
our infant industries are subjected to serious competition with the foreign
industries and therefore, the total output, income and investment are all
reduced thereby bringing about an unavoidable increase in unemployment and
poverty.
Therefore, it is
important to pay attention on population and all those that accompanied it and
examine its impact on the demand for imported consumable goods in Nigeria. On a
view to examine whether it is beneficial or not and to suggest how Nigeria
economy can be improved.
1.
To what extent has
population impacted on demand for imported consumable goods?
2.
Do long-run relationship
exist between population and demand for imported consumable goods.
The major objectives are as follows
1.
To empirically
investigate the impact of population on Demand for imported consumable goods in
Nigeria.
2.
To ascertain the extent
of long-run relationship existing between population and demand for imported
consumable goods in Nigeria.
The
hypothesis of the study are started below to guide the researcher.
Ho:
Population do not have impact on demand for imported consumable goods in Nigeria
economy
Ho:
There is no long run relationship existing between population and demand for
imported consumable goods.
This study will
help to change consumption patterns of foreign goods to indigenous goods. It
will help to create sustainable development and a high living standard for all
Nigerians. It will also serve as a guide to economic student for further
research and those in the related field of study. It will also help to form
appropriate device for right policy formations for solving economic problems.
The project covers all the facet of
population on demand for imported consumable goods. The time frame of this
project is 1981-2014 was chosen because it allows an analysis of the import of
consumable goods and the impact population had on it. This study is basically
restricted to the impact of population on demand for imported consumable goods
on the Nigeria economy growth. The researcher was not able to gather all the necessary
materials from all the secondary sources needed for the study. Also as a
student still dependent. She is limited
by finance that would have ensured consistency. Combining the research with
academic work was also not easy.
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