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Product Category: Projects

Product Code: 00007292

No of Pages: 97

No of Chapters: 1-5

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This study compared fertility among the States in South East zone of Nigeria using the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) 2013 data. Using the Relational Gompetz model, estimates of adjusted TFR of 4.75, 4.76, 6.1, 5.73 AND 5.01 WERE OBTAINED FOR Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo State respectively. The impact of three proximate determinants of Fertility (Sexua exposure, contraceptive use and post-partum infecundability) in each State of the South East zone were assessed using the Bongaat’s model. The result shows that sexual exposure exerted the highest fertility-reducing effect in each of the States. It accounts for 56% reduction in fertility from total fecundity rate (TF) to observed total fertility rate in Anambra State and only 42% in Abia State. Contraceptive use emerged the second major inhibitor of fertility in each of the States except Ebonyi and Enugu States where it exerted weaker impact. Postpartum infecundability exerted the weakest impact on fertility in Imo State. The net effect of socio-economic and demographic variables on the total number of children ever born (CEB) was assessed using Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA) model. The results show that respondent’s age exerted the strongest influence on the mean number of CEB and the influence increases with increase in age in all the States. Female education, especially beyond primary level has an inverse relationship with mean number of CEB in the States.


Title Page                                                                                                                              i

Declaration                                                                                                                            ii

Certification                                                                                                                          iii

Dedication                                                                                                                            iv

Acknowledgement                                                                                                                v

Table of contents                                                                                                                  vi

List of Tables                                                                                                                        ix

List of figures                                                                                                                       xi

Abstract                                                                                                                                xii



Introduction                                                                                                                           1

1.1       Background of Study                                                                                                 1

1.2       Target population (South East zone of Nigeria)                                                         2

1.3       Statement of Problem                                                                                                 4

1.4       Rationale for Study                                                                                                    4

1.5       Objectives of the Study                                                                                              5



Review of Related Literature                                                                                               6

2.1       General Review                                                                                                          6

2.1.1    Education                                                                                                                    8

2.1.2    The value of children                                                                                                11

2.1.3    Urbanization and modernization                                                                              12

2.1.4    Proximate determinants of fertility                                                                         12

2.1.5    Age at first marriage                                                                                               16

2.1.6    Contraception                                                                                                        17

2.1.7    Demand and unmet need for contraception                                                           19

2.1.8    Sex preference and desired family size                                                                  19

2.1.9    Induced abortion                                                                                                    20

2.1.10  Postpartum infecundability                                                                                     21



Source of Data and Method of Analysis                                                                         22

3.1       Source of Data                                                                                                                    22

3.2       Methods of Analysis                                                                                               22

3.2.1    Relational Gompertz model                                                                                    22

3.2.2    Bongaarts model                                                                                                     23

3.2.3    Relative contributions of each proximate variable                                                  26

3.2.4    Multiple classification analysis (MCA)                                                                   27

3.2.5    Model validity test                                                                                                  29



Data Presentation and Analysis of Findings                                                                   30

4.1       Percentage Distribution of Women in South East Zone by

 Background Characteristics                                                                                   30

4.2       Current and Life-time Fertility level                                                                      33

4.3       The Age Pattern of Fertility                                                                                    37

4.4       Analysis of Fertility Reducing Effect of Some Proximate Determinants              40


4.4.1    Accounting for the differences between observed and potential fertility            40

4.4.2    Results of the analysis of proximate determinants of fertility                              41

4.5       Result of  Analysis of Variance and Multiple Classification Analysis

            of Effect of Some Demographic and Socio-economic Variables on  Total

            Number of Children ever born (CEB) of States in South-East zone                    48

4.5.1    Abia  State                                                                                                            48

4.5.2    Anambra State                                                                                                                  53

4.5.3    Ebonyi State                                                                                                         57

4.5.4    Enugu State                                                                                                          60

4.5.5    Imo State                                                                                                              64

4.6       Comparison of the Result of Multiple Classification Analysis of the

Total Number of Children Ever-born in the South-Eastern Zone                        69 



Conclusion and Recommendation                                                                                 71

5.0       Conclusion                                                                                                           71

5.1       Recommendation                                                                                                  71









4.1                   Percentage Distribution of Women in South-East by some

Background Characteristics                                                                       32            

4.2                   Total Fertility Rate and Life-time Fertility (P7) of Women

Aged 15-49 in South East Zone, Nigeria, 2013                                        34

4.3                   Total Fertility Rate and Percentage of Women Aged 15-49

Currently Pregnant by Urban and Rural Residence in

South-East Zone, Nigeria, 2013                                                                36

4.4                   Relative Age-specific Fertility Rates and Moments of Age

Distribution of Fertility, South-East Zone, Nigeria, 2013                         38

4.5                   Indices of the Proximate Determinants and their Impact on

Fertility (Bongaarts model)                                                                        44

4.6                   Number of Births Averted as a Result of Non-marriage,

Contraceptive Use and Post-partum Amenorrhea and

Additional Abstinence                                                                               47

4.7a                 Analysis of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number

                        of Children Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49

                        and Selected Variables, Abia State, 2013                                                 51

4.7b                 Multiple Classification Analysis                                                                52

4.8a                 Analysis of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number of

                        Children Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49 and Selected

                        Variables, Anambra State, 2013                                                                 55

4.8b                 Multiple Classification Analysis                                                                 56

4.9a                 Analysis of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number of

                        Children Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49 and Selected

                        Variables, Ebonyi State, 2013                                                                    58

4.9b                 Multiple Classification Analysis                                                                 59

4.10a               Analysis of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number of

                        Children Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49 and Selected

                        Variables, Enugu State, 2013                                                                   62

4.10b               Multiple Classification Analysis                                                               63

4.11a               Analysis of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number of

                        Children Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49 and Selected

                        Variables, Anambra State, 2013                                                               66

4.11b               Multiple Classification Analysis                                                               67

4.12                 Results of Model Validation Test                                                             66










4.1                   Relative Age-specific Fertility Rate of South East States                      39













The word “Fertility” refers to actual reproductive performance of women or men. How many children have they parented? (Week, 2008). Fertility is one of the three principal components of population dynamics, the others being mortality and migration (United Nation, 1987).  Fertility is of great importance in contemporary demographic research as it is one of the greatest areas of discontinuity between National policies and individual goal. Malthus (1872) pointed out that human beings are “impelled” to increase the population of their species by what he called a powerful ‘instinct’ – the urge to reproduce. In less developed countries, the preferences of many individuals and groups for large family run counter to national policies to limit population growth in the face of low economic growth and per capita income. Several factors have been identified as responsible for the relatively high level of fertility in states within a geo-graphical area of Nigeria or the entire country at large. Fertility as a principal component of population dynamics determines the size and structure of the population of a country.

In this study a comparative analysis of fertility in states that make up the South East geo-political zone of Nigeria is carried out to ascertain the possible determinants of high fertility rates in the given states. Differentials in fertility levels and patterns in different areas and among population strata have been among the most pervasive finding in demography. Uncontrolled fertility would lead to poverty at both the household, states and national level (Margaret and Ann, 2004). Human fertility is a function of a variety of factors. A proper understanding of these factors is of paramount importance to appreciate the differences in levels and pattern of fertility in different populations.

Many studies indicate that the effects of socioeconomic and cultural factors on fertility vary from one region to another. Moreover, the existence of substantial variation in fertility behavior across socioeconomic variables – place of residence, level of education and occupation is a pervasive finding in demography. (Cleland, 1985; Freedman and Blanc, 1992; Rodriguez and Avarena 1991, Singh and Casterline, 1985, United Nations 1987). The state of fertility in the developing countries has been a matter of great concern to the International organizations such as the United Nations (UN), the United Nations Children Emergency Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and non-governmental organizations, especially in Africa. Total fertility rate of the developing countries has dropped from 6.0 live births per woman in the 1960 to 2.9 in 2000-2005 (United Nation, 2007). These decline are most rapid in Asian, North African and Latin American countries where socioeconomic development has been relatively brisk (Bongaart, 2008). But these decline has not been replicated in the sub-Saharan Africa.


The South East zone of Nigeria is made up of five states namely: Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo and Abia States. Three of these States (Anambra, Imo and Abia) are among the most densely populated in the country (NPC and ICF Macro, 2009). The zone  is bounded on the West by  River Niger, to the East by  Akwa Ibom State, to the South by Rivers State and to the North by Benue State. The environment is undulating with rivers and hills. Large deposit of coal found in Enugu State led to the growth of the Enugu city at the foot of Udi hill. The dominant culture in the South East zone is the Igbo Culture although there are pockets of migrant communities. The major religion is Christianity of various denominations. The major occupations are private sector professionals, farming, retail trading, civil service professions and artisans of various trades. As with other culture in Nigeria, the Igbos are culturally patriarchal although traditionally, women also play an important role in decision making. However, wives on the average are dependent on their husband socially and economically. Marriage in most communities in Nigeria including the South East zone is with the view to produce offspring; as such early marriage necessarily encompasses early pregnancy and child bearing. (Isiugo-Abanihe, 1994). The high values placed on children entrenches the desire to have as many children as soon as possible. This encourages early marriage so that a woman can have enough time to bear all her children (Odimegwu, 1998, Ibisomi, 2008). High marital fertility is encouraged  among the Igbos because of the high value  placed on children especially male children, hence a woman who has given birth to 10 or more children obtains a high social status (Odimegwu, 1998). Culturally also only male children can inherit Kindred Land, consequently there is strong preference for male children. Therefore, women tend to bear many children in order to produce as many sons as possible (Odimegwu, 1998, Ukaegbu, 1976). These traditions promotes high fertility rate.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in South East Zone of 4.7 is higher than the four children prescribed in the National Population Policy. (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1988;  Mba, 2002).  Some factors that contribute to the rate of either increase or gradual decline in fertility rates in South East zone include: mothers education, birth interval, postpartum amenorrhea, abstinence and insusceptibility, age at first birth, teenage pregnancy and motherhood, desire for male children.


It has been reported that fertility transition has begun in many developing countries since 1960 (Bongaart, 2008). Whether the prevailing factors driving fertility transition are the same across the geo-political zones in Nigeria is not yet conclusive. Data from Censuses in Nigeria reflect a progressive increase in population. Data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) show that overall fertility remained constant at 5.7 birth per woman between 2003 and 2008 and is estimated at 5.5 birth in 2013. Similarly the 2013 NDHS report indicates that the Total fertility rate in  Abia and Anambra was 4.17 and 4.12, Enugu and Imo has TFR of 4.72 and 4.85 respectively while  Ebonyi state has an even higher  TFR  of 5.34. Thus, by these differential in the fertility rate of the states within South Eastern zone of Nigeria, this study was conceived to  identify the determinant of  fertility differentials in the South East zone of Nigeria.


Although birth rate is relatively high in Nigeria, considerable variation among the geo-political zone exists. Report from NDHS, 2013 show that there is virtually no reduction in the TFR of south East zone from 4.8 between 2003 and 2008 to 4.7 in 2013. The report also indicated a reduction in the estimated national fertility rate from 5.7 between 2003-2008 to 5.5 in 2013 (NPC (Nigeria) and ICF International, 2014). Yet, higher fertility rate than prescribed in the 1988 population policy still persist. Several studies have investigated either the socio-economic, the demographic or the proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria and its sub-population in the South East( Kalu, 1986; Odimegwu and Assata, 1986; Ukaegbu, 1976 and Nwakeze 2007). This study seeks to contribute to the needed demographic understanding of the states under study in particular and Nigeria in general by undertaking a comparative analysis of fertility in the South Eastern States.


The intention behind the study is to examine fertility levels and differentials in the States of the South East zone of Nigeria and to identify the factors responsible for observed differences in fertility among the States. The study will therefore:

i.          Estimate and compare the levels of fertility among the States of the South East      zone.

ii.         Examine the age pattern of fertility in each state of the South East Zone

iii.        Examine differentials in fertility levels by socio-economic and demographic           variables

iv         Estimate the contribution of some proximate determinants of fertility in each state of South East zone.

v.         Determine the important predictors of fertility in each State of the South East zone.



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