ABSTRACT
This study compared fertility among the States in South East zone of Nigeria using the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) 2013 data. Using the Relational Gompetz model, estimates of adjusted TFR of 4.75, 4.76, 6.1, 5.73 AND 5.01 WERE OBTAINED FOR Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo State respectively. The impact of three proximate determinants of Fertility (Sexua exposure, contraceptive use and post-partum infecundability) in each State of the South East zone were assessed using the Bongaat’s model. The result shows that sexual exposure exerted the highest fertility-reducing effect in each of the States. It accounts for 56% reduction in fertility from total fecundity rate (TF) to observed total fertility rate in Anambra State and only 42% in Abia State. Contraceptive use emerged the second major inhibitor of fertility in each of the States except Ebonyi and Enugu States where it exerted weaker impact. Postpartum infecundability exerted the weakest impact on fertility in Imo State. The net effect of socio-economic and demographic variables on the total number of children ever born (CEB) was assessed using Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA) model. The results show that respondent’s age exerted the strongest influence on the mean number of CEB and the influence increases with increase in age in all the States. Female education, especially beyond primary level has an inverse relationship with mean number of CEB in the States.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title
Page i
Declaration
ii
Certification
iii
Dedication iv
Acknowledgement v
Table
of contents vi
List
of Tables ix
List
of figures xi
Abstract xii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction 1
1.1 Background of Study 1
1.2 Target population (South East zone of
Nigeria) 2
1.3 Statement of Problem 4
1.4 Rationale for Study 4
1.5 Objectives of the Study 5
CHAPTER 2
Review of Related Literature 6
2.1 General Review 6
2.1.1 Education 8
2.1.2 The value of children 11
2.1.3 Urbanization and modernization 12
2.1.4 Proximate determinants of fertility 12
2.1.5 Age at first marriage 16
2.1.6 Contraception 17
2.1.7 Demand and unmet need for contraception 19
2.1.8 Sex preference and desired family size 19
2.1.9 Induced abortion 20
2.1.10 Postpartum infecundability 21
CHAPTER 3
Source of Data and Method of Analysis 22
3.1 Source of Data 22
3.2 Methods of Analysis 22
3.2.1 Relational Gompertz model 22
3.2.2 Bongaarts model 23
3.2.3 Relative contributions of each proximate
variable 26
3.2.4 Multiple classification analysis (MCA) 27
3.2.5 Model validity test 29
CHAPTER 4
Data Presentation and Analysis of Findings 30
4.1 Percentage
Distribution of Women in South East Zone by
Background Characteristics 30
4.2 Current and Life-time Fertility level
33
4.3 The Age Pattern of Fertility 37
4.4 Analysis
of Fertility Reducing Effect of Some Proximate Determinants 40
4.4.1 Accounting
for the differences between observed and potential fertility
40
4.4.2 Results
of the analysis of proximate determinants of fertility 41
4.5 Result
of Analysis of Variance and Multiple
Classification Analysis
of
Effect of Some Demographic and Socio-economic Variables on Total
Number
of Children ever born (CEB) of States in South-East zone 48
4.5.1 Abia State 48
4.5.2 Anambra
State 53
4.5.3 Ebonyi
State 57
4.5.4 Enugu State 60
4.5.5 Imo
State 64
4.6 Comparison
of the Result of Multiple Classification Analysis of the
Total
Number of Children Ever-born in the South-Eastern Zone 69
CHAPTER
5
Conclusion
and Recommendation 71
5.0
Conclusion 71
5.1 Recommendation 71
References
Appendices
LIST OF TABLES
4.1 Percentage Distribution of
Women in South-East by some
Background Characteristics 32
4.2 Total Fertility Rate and
Life-time Fertility (P7) of Women
Aged 15-49 in South East Zone, Nigeria, 2013 34
4.3 Total Fertility Rate and
Percentage of Women Aged 15-49
Currently Pregnant by Urban and Rural Residence in
South-East Zone, Nigeria, 2013 36
4.4 Relative Age-specific
Fertility Rates and Moments of Age
Distribution of Fertility, South-East Zone, Nigeria,
2013
38
4.5 Indices of the Proximate
Determinants and their Impact on
Fertility (Bongaarts model) 44
4.6 Number
of Births Averted as a Result of Non-marriage,
Contraceptive
Use and Post-partum Amenorrhea and
Additional
Abstinence 47
4.7a Analysis
of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number
of
Children Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49
and
Selected Variables, Abia State, 2013 51
4.7b Multiple
Classification Analysis 52
4.8a Analysis
of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number of
Children
Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49 and Selected
Variables,
Anambra State, 2013 55
4.8b Multiple
Classification Analysis 56
4.9a Analysis
of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number of
Children
Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49 and Selected
Variables,
Ebonyi State, 2013 58
4.9b Multiple
Classification Analysis 59
4.10a Analysis
of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number of
Children
Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49 and Selected
Variables,
Enugu State, 2013
62
4.10b Multiple
Classification Analysis 63
4.11a Analysis
of Variance and Multiple Classification of Total Number of
Children
Ever Born to Ever Married Women Aged 15-49 and Selected
Variables,
Anambra State, 2013 66
4.11b Multiple
Classification Analysis 67
4.12 Results
of Model Validation Test 66
LIST
OF FIGURES
4.1
Relative Age-specific
Fertility Rate of South East States 39
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1
BACKGROUND
OF STUDY
The word “Fertility” refers to actual reproductive
performance of women or men. How many children have they parented? (Week, 2008).
Fertility is one of the three principal components of population dynamics, the
others being mortality and migration (United Nation, 1987). Fertility is of great importance in
contemporary demographic research as it is one of the greatest areas of
discontinuity between National policies and individual goal. Malthus (1872)
pointed out that human beings are “impelled” to increase the population of their
species by what he called a powerful ‘instinct’ – the urge to reproduce. In
less developed countries, the preferences of many individuals and groups for
large family run counter to national policies to limit population growth in the
face of low economic growth and per capita income. Several factors have been
identified as responsible for the relatively high level of fertility in states
within a geo-graphical area of Nigeria or the entire country at large.
Fertility as a principal component of population dynamics determines the size
and structure of the population of a country.
In this study a comparative
analysis of fertility in states that make up the South East geo-political zone
of Nigeria is carried out to ascertain the possible determinants of high fertility
rates in the given states. Differentials in fertility levels and patterns in
different areas and among population strata have been among the most pervasive
finding in demography. Uncontrolled fertility would lead to poverty at both the
household, states and national level (Margaret and Ann, 2004). Human fertility
is a function of a variety of factors. A proper understanding of these factors
is of paramount importance to appreciate the differences in levels and pattern
of fertility in different populations.
Many studies indicate that the effects of
socioeconomic and cultural factors on fertility vary from one region to
another. Moreover, the existence of substantial variation in fertility behavior
across socioeconomic variables – place of residence, level of education and
occupation is a pervasive finding in demography. (Cleland, 1985; Freedman and
Blanc, 1992; Rodriguez and Avarena 1991, Singh and Casterline, 1985, United
Nations 1987). The state of fertility in the developing countries has been a
matter of great concern to the International organizations such as the United
Nations (UN), the United Nations Children Emergency Fund (UNICEF), the United
Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and non-governmental organizations, especially
in Africa. Total fertility rate of the developing countries has dropped from
6.0 live births per woman in the 1960 to 2.9 in 2000-2005 (United Nation,
2007). These decline are most rapid in Asian, North African and Latin American
countries where socioeconomic development has been relatively brisk (Bongaart,
2008). But these decline has not been replicated in the sub-Saharan Africa.
1.2 TARGET
POPULATION (SOUTH EAST ZONE OF
NIGERIA)
The South East zone of Nigeria is made up
of five states namely: Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo and Abia States. Three of
these States (Anambra, Imo and Abia) are among the most densely populated in
the country (NPC and ICF Macro, 2009). The zone is bounded on the West by River Niger, to the East by Akwa Ibom State, to the South by Rivers State
and to the North by Benue State. The environment is undulating with rivers and
hills. Large deposit of coal found in Enugu State led to the growth of the
Enugu city at the foot of Udi hill. The dominant culture in the South East zone
is the Igbo Culture although there are pockets of migrant communities. The
major religion is Christianity of various denominations. The major occupations
are private sector professionals, farming, retail trading, civil service
professions and artisans of various trades. As with other culture in Nigeria,
the Igbos are culturally patriarchal although traditionally, women also play an
important role in decision making. However, wives on the average are dependent
on their husband socially and economically. Marriage in most communities in
Nigeria including the South East zone is with the view to produce offspring; as
such early marriage necessarily encompasses early pregnancy and child bearing.
(Isiugo-Abanihe, 1994). The high values placed on children entrenches the
desire to have as many children as soon as possible. This encourages early
marriage so that a woman can have enough time to bear all her children
(Odimegwu, 1998, Ibisomi, 2008). High marital fertility is encouraged among the Igbos because of the high value placed on children especially male children,
hence a woman who has given birth to 10 or more children obtains a high social
status (Odimegwu, 1998). Culturally also only male children can inherit Kindred
Land, consequently there is strong preference for male children. Therefore,
women tend to bear many children in order to produce as many sons as possible
(Odimegwu, 1998, Ukaegbu, 1976). These traditions promotes high fertility rate.
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in South
East Zone of 4.7 is higher than the four children prescribed in the National
Population Policy. (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1988; Mba, 2002). Some factors that contribute to the rate of either
increase or gradual decline in fertility rates in South East zone include:
mothers education, birth interval, postpartum amenorrhea, abstinence and
insusceptibility, age at first birth, teenage pregnancy and motherhood, desire
for male children.
1.3 STATEMENT
OF PROBLEM
It has been reported that
fertility transition has begun in many developing countries since 1960
(Bongaart, 2008). Whether the prevailing factors driving fertility transition
are the same across the geo-political zones in Nigeria is not yet conclusive.
Data from Censuses in Nigeria reflect a progressive increase in population.
Data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) show that overall
fertility remained constant at 5.7 birth per woman between 2003 and 2008 and is
estimated at 5.5 birth in 2013. Similarly the 2013 NDHS report indicates that
the Total fertility rate in Abia and
Anambra was 4.17 and 4.12, Enugu and Imo has TFR of 4.72 and 4.85 respectively while
Ebonyi state has an even higher TFR of
5.34. Thus, by these differential in the fertility rate of the states within
South Eastern zone of Nigeria, this study was conceived to identify the determinant of fertility differentials in the South East zone
of Nigeria.
1.4 RATIONALE
FOR THE STUDY
Although birth rate is relatively high in
Nigeria, considerable variation among the geo-political zone exists. Report
from NDHS, 2013 show that there is virtually no reduction in the TFR of south
East zone from 4.8 between 2003 and 2008 to 4.7 in 2013. The report also
indicated a reduction in the estimated national fertility rate from 5.7 between
2003-2008 to 5.5 in 2013 (NPC (Nigeria) and ICF International, 2014). Yet,
higher fertility rate than prescribed in the 1988 population policy still
persist. Several studies have investigated either the socio-economic, the
demographic or the proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria and its
sub-population in the South East( Kalu, 1986; Odimegwu and Assata, 1986;
Ukaegbu, 1976 and Nwakeze 2007). This study seeks to contribute to the needed
demographic understanding of the states under study in particular and Nigeria
in general by undertaking a comparative analysis of fertility in the South
Eastern States.
1.5 OBJECTIVES
OF THE STUDY
The intention behind the
study is to examine fertility levels and differentials in the States of the
South East zone of Nigeria and to identify the factors responsible for observed
differences in fertility among the States. The study will therefore:
i. Estimate and compare the levels of fertility among the States
of the South East zone.
ii. Examine the age pattern of fertility in
each state of the South East Zone
iii. Examine differentials in fertility
levels by socio-economic and demographic variables
iv Estimate
the contribution of some proximate determinants of fertility in each state of South
East zone.
v. Determine
the important predictors of fertility in each State of the South East zone.
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