ABSTRACT
This study examined a system dynamic model of greenhouse gases in Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to simulate the effects of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions for Nigeria using Vensim software 9.2, compare and evaluate the results gotten from the Vensim to simulate and predict the effects of this gases over an extended period of time. Secondary data on the emission of greenhouse gases was obtained from Data World Bank from 1990-2021. Stock Flow Diagram (SFD) was used for the mathematical modeling of the structure. The simulation result showed that the emission of methane will increase to 20 billion tones by 2030, nitrous oxide increased to 1×1031 by 2030, carbon dioxide increased to 1×1038 at 2002. The deforestation emission showed that the carbon in the environment will increase to 1×1038. The findings shows that the emission of greenhouse gases is on the increase annually and if nothing is done, it will have an adverse effect on the environment and health care of the population. It was therefore recommended that renewable energy should be encouraged
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page i
Declaration ii
Certification iii
Dedication iv
Acknowledgment v
Table of Contents vi
Lists of Tables ix
List of Figures x
Abstract xi
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem 2
1.3 Aim and Objectives 3
1.4 Scope of the Work 3
1.5 Justification of the Work 3
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Conceptual Frame Work 5
2.1.1 Greenhouse emission in Nigeria 5
2.1.2 Types of greenhouse gases 7
2.2 Theoretical Frame Work 11
2.2.1 System dynamic modeling 11
2.3 Empirical Frame Work 11 2.4 Summary of review of related literature 13
CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Concept of system dynamics 16
3.2 System Conceptualisation 17
3.3 Model structure 17
3.3.1 Formulation of casual loop diagram 18
3.3.2 Formulation of stock flow diagram 18
3.3.3 Mathematical Formulation 19
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Trend of methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide over time 23
4.2 Factors affecting greenhouse emissions 25
4.3 Effect of greenhouse gases on mortality rate 28
4.4 Simulation and prediction of greenhouse gases 32
4.5 Simulation and prediction of the factors affecting greenhouse emissions 34
4.6 Sensitivity analysis 35
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
5.1 Conclusion 41
5.2 Recommendation 42
REFERENCES 43
APPENDICES 50
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1: Summary of review of literatures 12
LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 3.1: Steps in achieving a model 17
Fig. 3.2: Causal loop diagram 18
Fig. 3.3: Stock flow diagram 19
Fig. 4.1: Variation of methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide over time 23
Fig. 4.2: Effect of solid fuel over time 25
Fig. 4.3: Effect of solid fuel over time 25
Fig. 4.4: Effect of transportation over time 26
Fig. 4.6: Effect of mortality rate against methane emission over time 28
Fig. 4.7: Effect of mortality against carbon dioxide emission over time 29
Fig. 4.8: Effect of mortality rate and nitrous oxide emission over time 30
Fig 4.9: Amount of deforestation over time 31
Fig 4.10: Simulation of methane emission 33
Fig 4.11: Simulation of nitrous oxide emission from 1990 to 2030 33
Fig 4.12: Simulation of carbon dioxide emission from 1990 to 2030 33
Fig 4.13: Simulation of transportation from 1990 to 2030 35
Fig 4.14 Simulation of deforestation emission from 1990 to 2030 35
Fig 4.15 Simulation of fossil fuel emission from 1990 to 2030 35
Fig 4.16 Emission of methane against time 36
Fig 4.17 Emission of nitrous oxide against time 37
Fig 4.18 Emission of carbon dioxide against time 38
Fig 4.19 Emission of solid fuel against time 39
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY
The emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) comes from improper management of generated municipal solid waste, animal dumps and deforestation are one of the biggest concerns for the developing as well as for the developed countries. An increase in population will affect the increase in the amount of waste. Landfilling is one of the most commonly adopted technologies for refuse disposal (Grobler et al., 2014). Landfill methods continue to be widely used in different countries for the final disposal of solid waste material due to its economic advantages (Arsandi et al., 2017). However, a lot of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), is produced from the landfill waste management process. Various policy tools were introduced to implement the goal of reducing waste to large extent such as; Volume – based waste fee system, enforce recycling through deposit system and assistance programs for recycling industries (Park et al., 2013).
The primary step is to simulate using System dynamics modeling (SDM) and to Predict the greenhouse emission (GHE), for example the management of solid waste, greenhouse emission, animal waste and deforestation with policies has been performed (Sufian, 2017). Therefore, to reduce greenhouse gases, governments around the world are encouraging projects that turn greenhouse gases into electricity. Greenhouse methane has the potential to produce 2,700 MW of electric generating capacity in the United States alone and 9,000 MW worldwide. Greenhouse gases are mixtures of several gases with its main constituents being methane 50 – 55% and carbon dioxide 45 – 55% (An et al., 2013). It is aerobic and anaerobic decomposition which mainly generates methane and carbon dioxide, respectively. Methane is regarded as one of the most important greenhouse gases because it’s a global warming potential over decades is 28 times higher than carbon dioxide (Statistik et al., 2017). Hence, studying generation of methane and carbon dioxide is one of the interesting research areas especially from the greenhouse gases view point (Monice et al., 2018). Global warming is one of a number of environmental impacts that derived from greenhouse gas options. Several research works focused on the Greenhous gases system and related gases in connection with the environmental problem (Sunarto, et al., 2017). mathematical modeling is one of the alternative tools to uncover this complex system problem (Korchagina et al., 2018). The mathematical model is a representation in mathematical terms of the behavior of real-world systems or objects. Mathematical models are quick and easy to produce; they can simplify a more complex situation which can help improve understanding of the real world as certain variables. Moreover, it enables predictions to be made or can help provide control (Condor et al., 2017). It can take many forms, such as dynamical systems, statistical models, or differential equations (Vicente et al 2021). And using the systems of ODE is one of very well-known method (Bian et al., 2018). In the system of differential equations model, the most important consideration is equilibrium or steady state. In addition, the analysis of the greenhouse gases influencing the system dynamics or behavior is also a common consideration. In this work, this study investigates the greenhouse gases generated from the emission of methane, animal waste and deforestation. The involved chemical reaction processes are considered and a mathematical model is formulated and analyzed. This study simulates and predict the rate of emissions in Nigeria.
1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
In this century, generation of greenhouse emission gases (GHES) is the global concern that is mostly impacted by rapid urbanization, industrialization (Fang et al., 2017) and population growth (Islam et al., 2017). Therefore, the sustainable management of GHE will be necessary at all phase to plan a design for operation. The necessity of an orderly evolution will allow the waste management industries and different government agencies to meet unified goals of greenhouse emission (GHE) with a greater potential. Recycling of materials out from the waste streams, enlargement of the renewable energy management and importantly- a socially acceptable non-technical aspects of a GHE system would be analyzed as a whole, since all of them are correlated with one another and also developments in one area often upset the activities in another area.
1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES
The aim of the study is to model the Greenhouse gas emission in Nigeria using system dynamics approach. The specific objectives are:
1. To identify and evaluate the different gasses emitted from Greenhouse in the study area.
2. To simulate and predict the rate of emission in the study area.
1.4 SCOPE OF STUDY
1. Carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide and methane as the major greenhouse gases
2. Nigeria as a case study
3. Simulating using Vensim software
1.5 JUSTIFICATION
With the current Greenhouse emission problem ravaging Nigeria in particular, there is need to develop more effective waste management techniques which could ultimately drive governmental legislation regarding how to manage Greenhouse emission. This will inevitably lead to improved living conditions, recycling of solid waste, deforestation and animal waste to intrinsic value and foster development within the society.
Several approaches have been suggested in order to improve GHE in developing countries including Nigeria, reports of environmental awareness campaigns through mass media and advertisements to promote public awareness on GHE and other environmental issues. In this study, System dynamic molding approach will be used in integrating the data that was collected within the study area, as it will recommend and enhance solid waste recycling as a sustainable approach towards GHE in the study area.
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