TABLE OF CONTENTS
Pages
Title
page i
Certification ii
Dedication iii
Acknowledgement iv
Table
of contents v
List
of figures xiii
List
of tables ix
Abstract x
1.0 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1-6
1.1 Background to the Study 1
1.2 Problem Statement 4
1.3 Aim and Objectives of the study 5
1.4 Justification for the study 5
1.5 Scope of Work 6
2.0 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 7-24
2.1 Introduction 7
2.2 Water Resources in Nigeria 8
2.3 Water Management Practices and Policy in
Nigeria 10
2.4 Water Allocation Guidelines and Principles 10
2.5 Water Resources Management Models for River
Basin Simulation 11
2.5.1 MODSIM 12
2.5.2 MIKE
BASIN 13
2.5.3 RIBASIM 14
2.5.4 REALM 15
2.5.5 WEAP21 16
2.6 Description of the SWAT Modeling and SWAT Components 18
2.7 SWAT Strength and Limitation 20
2.7.1 Limitation
of SWAT Model 21
2.8 Previous Water Supply And Demand Studies 21
3.0 CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY 25-36
3.1 Introduction 25
3.2 Model Selection and Description 25
3.3 Model Data Requirements and Collection 27
3.3.1 Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) 27
3.3.2 Land
Use and Land Cover (LULC) 29
3.3.3 Soil
Data 31
3.3.4 Weather
Data 32
3.4 SWAT Model Set-Up and Run 33
3.4.1 Model
Setup 33
3.4.2 Watershed
Delineation 34
3.5 Water Yield Potential and Estimation of
Available Water Resources 35
3.6 Water demand estimation 36
3.7 Population Forecasting 36
4.0 CHAPTER FOUR: RESULT AND DISCUSSION 37-42
4.1 Prediction of Water Balance Component 37
4.2 Prediction of Water Yield Potentials in the
Sub-basin of
Asa
watershed 40
4.3 Estimation of Available Water Resources 41
4.4 Estimation of Water Demand of the River
Basin 41
4.5 Comparison of Water Supply and Demand 42
5.0 CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS 43-44
5.1 Conclusions 43
5.2 Recommendations 44
REFERENCES 45-51
LIST
OF FIGURES
Figure
|
Description
|
Page No
|
3.1
|
Digital Elevation Model of the Study Area
|
28
|
3.2
|
Land
Use map of the Watershed
|
30
|
3.3
|
Soil Map of the Study Area
|
32
|
3.4
|
Delineation
of Watershed into Sub-Basins
|
34
|
4.1
|
Average annual water balances for Asa watershed
|
39
|
4.2
|
Average
monthly water balances for Asa watershed
|
40
|
4.3
|
Total water balances for Asa watershed
|
41
|
4.4
|
Spatial
Variation of Water Yield Potential of Asa Watershed
|
42
|
LIST
OF TABLES
Table
|
Description
|
Page No
|
3.1
|
Information on Land Use of the Study Area
|
30
|
3.2
|
Information
on Soil of the Study Area
|
31
|
4.1
|
Average annual water balances simulated for a base
periods of 1986-2015.
|
38
|
4.2
|
Average
monthly water balances simulated for a base periods of 1986-2015
|
39
|
4.3
|
Total water balances simulated for a base periods of
1986-2015
|
40
|
ABSTRACT
This study arose from the growing water demand within the
Asa River Basin due to population upsurge, the absence of existing water demand
management strategies, the possibility of scarcity as a result of climate
change, and the need for sustainable water resources management. The aim of the study was to assess water availability
and water demand of Asa catchment using GIS-based hydrological model. The
methodology involved the input of spatial and temporal data into Soil and Water
Assessment Tool (SWAT) using Geographic Information System (GIS) as interface.
After the model was configured, set up and run, the water balance components
and water yield potential were predicted. The modelling results showed that
evapotranspiration is the highest water balance component while the lowest is
lateral soil flow. The spatial distribution of water yield potentials in the sub-basins
of the study area showed that sub-basin 9 has the lowest water yield potential
while sub-basin 84 has the highest. The total water yield potential of the
study area is 1,296,676.5mm while the total area of the river catchment is
5,618.28km2. The available water resources in the catchment were
estimated to be 7.2 billion m3. The projected total population of
the domiciled local governments in the catchment for 2015 is 1,203,743 persons
and the water demand for this population was estimated as 1.3 billion m3.
Comparing the water demand with the available water resources shows that the
available water resources outweigh the water demand, which implies that there
was no scarcity. However, there may be future scarcity due to the increasing
population and climate change.
CHAPTER
ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Background to the study
Water is a vital
resource for every human activity. Water makes life possible. Without it, life
and civilization cannot develop or survive (Ojekunle, 2011). Water forms the
largest part of most living matter and is vital
to man just
as air and
food are (Ayoade,
2003). The management and
maintenance of water is thus very important (Fiorilloa, 2007). The accelerating
growth of human
population, the rapid
advances made in
industry and agriculture have
resulted in a
rapidly increasing use
of water by
man, to the
extent that the availability of water as well as the
control of excessive water has become a critical factor in the development of
every regions of
the world (Williams,
2010).
Over the
decades, water supply management has
proved to be
insufficient to deal
with strong competition
for water with growing
per capita water
use, increasing population,
urbanization pollution and
storages (Wang Xiao –
Jun et al, 2009).
In addition, the need for domestic, industrial and agricultural water
supply is growing, but the absence of demand management strategies means that
the increase in demand will likely outstrip the available supply, hence water
scarcity (UNESCO, 2006). One-third of the world’s total population of 5.7
billion lives under conditions of relative water scarcity and 450 million
people are under severe water stress (UN, 1997). The issue of water scarcity in
the world and its implication on development of new political and economic relations
among countries may
result to crisis
in the future.
Thus, there is need for the implementation of effective water resources
management which becomes particularly important towards determining how
much water is
available for human
use and economic
activities that water
should be shared between users.
Population growth is a
major contributor to water scarcity. The
global population is expanding by 80 million people annually, increasing the
demand for freshwater by about 64 billion m3 a year (Population Institute,
2010). Rapid population growth and urbanization could expose more people to
water shortages, with negative implications for livelihoods, health, and
security. These demographic trends, coupled with increasing per-capita water
consumption, will be a huge development challenge (Bates, Kundzewicz, Wu and
Palutikof, 2008). Growth in
population implies mounting demand and competition of
water for domestic, industrial,
and municipal uses (Population Action International, 2011). Population growth
leads directly to
increases in overall
water demand, while
other demographic factors such as population distribution and age
structure modifies the pattern in demand and determines increases
in household water
demand. Overall, the amount of
water each person uses is expected to increase as incomes grow and consumption
increases (UN-Water and FAO. 2007).
Evidences are ample
that there is an explosion in the population of cities in Nigeria (Eja, Inah,
Yaro and Inyang, 2011; Nwosu, 2013). The effect of the rapid urban population
growth is noticeable through the provision of municipal services such as
pipe-borne water. Expectations of the populace on the activities of policy
makers for the supply of water are quite high. (Sule, 2008). Water can be said
to be adequate when an individual is availed a quantity of at least 50 litres
per day (World Health Organization, 2003).
The unavailability of
water in required proportion for man’s use has assume global crises dimension. According to
the Population Institute
(2010), only 20
percent of the
global population has
access to running water and over
1 billion people do not have access to
clean water. The Population Institute noted further that with a projected
population of the world to expand to 9 billion people by 2050, it is estimated
that 90 percent of the additional 3 billion people will be living in developing
countriess, many of which are already experiencing water stress or scarcity therefore,
it is pertinent to manage water resources sustainably.
Water resources
management has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of a
catchment. The water demands and availability depends on the economic,
ecological, land use, and climatic changes of a region (Droogers,2012). Water
resource management is a multifaceted issue that becomes more
complex when considering
multiple nations’ interdependence upon a
single shared trans boundary river basin (Teasley and McKenney, 2011). The management
of water resources
as a common
resource would require
trade-off among countries
and water users (Yang and
Zehnder, 2007). The need therefore to devise means by which available water can
be consumed and allocated among the various uses is pertinent.
The planning of human
activities involving rivers and their floodplains must consider hydrological
facts; (…) the flows and storage volumes vary over space and time (Loucks et
al, 2005). The necessity
of predicting the
hydrological patterns is
essential to the
reservoir management. The reservoirs
have to insure
not only the
water quality, but
also the human,
the industrial and the
agricultural consumption.
Nowadays the environmental concerns such as the aquatic biodiversity and the
environmental pressure have an increased influence in the decision-making.
Asa River is one of
the major sources of water supply in Kwara state. This study simulates the
hydrological process of Asa watershed that allows for the estimation of
available water resources, so that sustainable and rational utilization,
conservation and management of available water resources will be adopted using Soil
and Water Asessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study also proffers alternative
strategies for water conservation that will meet water demand within the basin.
1.2 Problem Statement
In the study area, there has been an increase of
population over the last three decades which leads to strong competition for
water with growing per capital water use. Also, there is possibility of
scarcity due to the potential effects of global climate change on water
resources. Asa river basin faces freshwater management challenges, some of
which includes allocation of limited water resources, inadequate environmental
quality monitoring, and policies for sustainable water use.
1.3. Aim and Objectives of the study
The aim of the study
was to assess water availability and water demand of Asa catchment using GIS-based
hydrological model. The specific
objectives achieved in this research are:
1. to predict water balance components of Asa river basin
during the modelling period.
2. to predict total water yield potential of the basin.
3. to evaluate water demand of Asa river basin using
projected population of the inhabitant of the basin.
4. to evaluate available water resources of Asa river
basin from 1986-2015.
5. to compare the volume of available water resources with
the actual water demand of the catchment area within the modelling period.
1.4
Justification for the study
Water is vital resource for every human activity. Water is
scarce and there is need for efforts to improve its availability and explore it
sustainability. To achieve reliable
prediction of the
various hydrologic parameters
including rainfall, runoff
etc. for river catchment, it is
very tough and time consuming by conventional methods. So it is very important
to search suitable
methods and techniques
for quantifying the
hydrological parameters. The
fundamental objective of hydrology modeling is to gain an understanding of
hydrological system in order to
provide reliable information
for managing water
resources in a
sustained manner.
1.5 Scope of Work
In this study, thirty
years meteorological data such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar
radiation etc. were used. Validation and calibration of model were not included
due to non-availability of observed data. Population projection using geometric
method was adopted.
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